A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population
Hepatitis E is an acute viral infectious disease transmitted by fecal-oral route mainly through fecally contaminated drinking water, with cyclic outbreaks and frequent development of acute hepatic encephalopathy in pregnant women. Hepatitis E epidemic outbreaks occur in Central Asia, Africa and Lati...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Sankt-Peterburg : NIIÈM imeni Pastera
2019-07-01
|
| Series: | Инфекция и иммунитет |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.iimmun.ru/iimm/article/view/657 |
| _version_ | 1797973040638722048 |
|---|---|
| author | N. A. Kontarov N. V. Yuminova G. I. Alatortseva L. N. Lukhverchik Z. Sh. Nurmatov I. V. Pogarskyia |
| author_facet | N. A. Kontarov N. V. Yuminova G. I. Alatortseva L. N. Lukhverchik Z. Sh. Nurmatov I. V. Pogarskyia |
| author_sort | N. A. Kontarov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hepatitis E is an acute viral infectious disease transmitted by fecal-oral route mainly through fecally contaminated drinking water, with cyclic outbreaks and frequent development of acute hepatic encephalopathy in pregnant women. Hepatitis E epidemic outbreaks occur in Central Asia, Africa and Latin America, whereasChina,India,Turkmenistan,Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Bolivia,Mexico, andTaiwanrepresent endemic geographic regions. Hepatitis E in the structure of acute viral hepatitis morbidity during outbreaks ranges from 64.7% to 80%, whereas sporadic morbidity may be up to 10 to 18.8%. In contrast, percentage of hepatitis E in acute viral hepatitis varies from 0.5% to 12.6% in European countries and some territories of theRussian Federation. The latent active virus circulation was confirmed in various regions of theRussian Federation. All introduced cases were related to recent traveling to the regions with high incidence of hepatitis E, which course clinically did not differ from standard hepatitis E infection, but no cases of infection were recorded after exposure. Lack of contact transmission in this case was associated with low virus survival in environment. Patients with any clinical form including anicteric serve as a source of infection. An increased risk of hepatitis E infection is typical for livestock workers dealing with pigs, employe es of meat processing plants engaged in primary meat carcass processing and working at slaughterhouse. According to the World Health Organization, 20 million cases of hepatitis E virus infection are recorded annually, among which 3 million cases account for acute hepatitis E and related 70 000 lethal outcomes. Chronic liver disorders comprising up to 70% followed by death of pregnant women (40%) as well as acute liver and kidney failure reaching as low as 4% result in lethal outcome in hepatitis E patients. Creating a mathematical model for development of hepatitis E infection could allow to predict changes in its morbidity rate at controlled area. Here, for the first time we propose a mathematical model for developing hepatitis E in human population based on disease course, which may potentially predict an incidence rate for the most dangerous icteric hepatitis E as well as assess amount of individuals susceptible to it at morbidity rise in the geographic region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T03:57:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d519de86529143ef8d71273ac70626eb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2220-7619 2313-7398 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T03:57:50Z |
| publishDate | 2019-07-01 |
| publisher | Sankt-Peterburg : NIIÈM imeni Pastera |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Инфекция и иммунитет |
| spelling | doaj.art-d519de86529143ef8d71273ac70626eb2023-01-02T00:08:19ZrusSankt-Peterburg : NIIÈM imeni PasteraИнфекция и иммунитет2220-76192313-73982019-07-019238138410.15789/2220-7619-2019-2-381-384743A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human populationN. A. Kontarov0N. V. Yuminova1G. I. Alatortseva2L. N. Lukhverchik3Z. Sh. Nurmatov4I. V. Pogarskyia5I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University; I.I. Mechnikov Research Institute of Vaccines and SeraI.I. Mechnikov Research Institute of Vaccines and SeraI.I. Mechnikov Research Institute of Vaccines and SeraI.I. Mechnikov Research Institute of Vaccines and SeraSPS “Preventive Medicine”I.I. Mechnikov Research Institute of Vaccines and SeraHepatitis E is an acute viral infectious disease transmitted by fecal-oral route mainly through fecally contaminated drinking water, with cyclic outbreaks and frequent development of acute hepatic encephalopathy in pregnant women. Hepatitis E epidemic outbreaks occur in Central Asia, Africa and Latin America, whereasChina,India,Turkmenistan,Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Bolivia,Mexico, andTaiwanrepresent endemic geographic regions. Hepatitis E in the structure of acute viral hepatitis morbidity during outbreaks ranges from 64.7% to 80%, whereas sporadic morbidity may be up to 10 to 18.8%. In contrast, percentage of hepatitis E in acute viral hepatitis varies from 0.5% to 12.6% in European countries and some territories of theRussian Federation. The latent active virus circulation was confirmed in various regions of theRussian Federation. All introduced cases were related to recent traveling to the regions with high incidence of hepatitis E, which course clinically did not differ from standard hepatitis E infection, but no cases of infection were recorded after exposure. Lack of contact transmission in this case was associated with low virus survival in environment. Patients with any clinical form including anicteric serve as a source of infection. An increased risk of hepatitis E infection is typical for livestock workers dealing with pigs, employe es of meat processing plants engaged in primary meat carcass processing and working at slaughterhouse. According to the World Health Organization, 20 million cases of hepatitis E virus infection are recorded annually, among which 3 million cases account for acute hepatitis E and related 70 000 lethal outcomes. Chronic liver disorders comprising up to 70% followed by death of pregnant women (40%) as well as acute liver and kidney failure reaching as low as 4% result in lethal outcome in hepatitis E patients. Creating a mathematical model for development of hepatitis E infection could allow to predict changes in its morbidity rate at controlled area. Here, for the first time we propose a mathematical model for developing hepatitis E in human population based on disease course, which may potentially predict an incidence rate for the most dangerous icteric hepatitis E as well as assess amount of individuals susceptible to it at morbidity rise in the geographic region.https://www.iimmun.ru/iimm/article/view/657hepatitis e virusicteric and anicteric hepatitismathematical modelinfection doubling timetransmission numberpopulation |
| spellingShingle | N. A. Kontarov N. V. Yuminova G. I. Alatortseva L. N. Lukhverchik Z. Sh. Nurmatov I. V. Pogarskyia A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population Инфекция и иммунитет hepatitis e virus icteric and anicteric hepatitis mathematical model infection doubling time transmission number population |
| title | A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population |
| title_full | A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population |
| title_fullStr | A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population |
| title_full_unstemmed | A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population |
| title_short | A mathematical model for developing hepatitis E virus infection in human population |
| title_sort | mathematical model for developing hepatitis e virus infection in human population |
| topic | hepatitis e virus icteric and anicteric hepatitis mathematical model infection doubling time transmission number population |
| url | https://www.iimmun.ru/iimm/article/view/657 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nakontarov amathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT nvyuminova amathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT gialatortseva amathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT lnlukhverchik amathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT zshnurmatov amathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT ivpogarskyia amathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT nakontarov mathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT nvyuminova mathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT gialatortseva mathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT lnlukhverchik mathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT zshnurmatov mathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation AT ivpogarskyia mathematicalmodelfordevelopinghepatitisevirusinfectioninhumanpopulation |