Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study
Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction (AMI) is associated with high mortality. This study aimed to generate a mortality prediction model to predict the 30-day mortality of surgery for AMI. We included patients ≥18 years who received bowel resection in treating AMI and randomly divided into the der...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/19/5937 |
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| author | Shang-Wei Lin Chung-Yen Chen Yu-Chieh Su Kun-Ta Wu Po-Chin Yu Yung-Chieh Yen Jian-Han Chen |
| author_facet | Shang-Wei Lin Chung-Yen Chen Yu-Chieh Su Kun-Ta Wu Po-Chin Yu Yung-Chieh Yen Jian-Han Chen |
| author_sort | Shang-Wei Lin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction (AMI) is associated with high mortality. This study aimed to generate a mortality prediction model to predict the 30-day mortality of surgery for AMI. We included patients ≥18 years who received bowel resection in treating AMI and randomly divided into the derivation and validation groups. After multivariable analysis, the ‘Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction mortality score’ (SAMIMS) system was generated and was including age >62-year-old (3 points), hemodialysis (2 points), congestive heart failure (1 point), peptic ulcer disease (1 point), diabetes (1 point), cerebrovascular disease (1 point), and severe liver disease (4 points). The 30-day-mortality rates in the derivation group were 4.4%, 13.4%, 24.5%, and 32.5% among very low (0 point), low (1–3 point(s)), intermediate (4–6 points), and high (7–13 points)-risk patients. Compared to the very-low-risk group, the low-risk (OR = 3.332), intermediate-risk (OR = 7.004), and high-risk groups (OR = 10.410, <i>p</i> < 0.001) exhibited higher odds of 30-day mortality. We identified similar results in the validation group. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.677 and 0.696 in the derivation and validation groups. Our prediction model, SAMIMS, allowed for the stratification of the patients’ 30-day-mortality risk of surgery for acute mesenteric infarction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:33:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d63da10975fb4d65980423a5d357af33 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:33:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-d63da10975fb4d65980423a5d357af332023-11-23T20:51:21ZengMDPI AGJournal of Clinical Medicine2077-03832022-10-011119593710.3390/jcm11195937Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based StudyShang-Wei Lin0Chung-Yen Chen1Yu-Chieh Su2Kun-Ta Wu3Po-Chin Yu4Yung-Chieh Yen5Jian-Han Chen6Department of Surgery, E-Da Hospital, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanDepartment of Surgery, E-Da Hospital, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanSchool of Medicine, College of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanDepartment of Surgery, E-Da Hospital, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanDepartment of Surgery, E-Da Hospital, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanDepartment of Psychiatry, E-Da Hospital, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanDepartment of Surgery, E-Da Hospital, Kaohsiung 82445, TaiwanSurgery for acute mesenteric infarction (AMI) is associated with high mortality. This study aimed to generate a mortality prediction model to predict the 30-day mortality of surgery for AMI. We included patients ≥18 years who received bowel resection in treating AMI and randomly divided into the derivation and validation groups. After multivariable analysis, the ‘Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction mortality score’ (SAMIMS) system was generated and was including age >62-year-old (3 points), hemodialysis (2 points), congestive heart failure (1 point), peptic ulcer disease (1 point), diabetes (1 point), cerebrovascular disease (1 point), and severe liver disease (4 points). The 30-day-mortality rates in the derivation group were 4.4%, 13.4%, 24.5%, and 32.5% among very low (0 point), low (1–3 point(s)), intermediate (4–6 points), and high (7–13 points)-risk patients. Compared to the very-low-risk group, the low-risk (OR = 3.332), intermediate-risk (OR = 7.004), and high-risk groups (OR = 10.410, <i>p</i> < 0.001) exhibited higher odds of 30-day mortality. We identified similar results in the validation group. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.677 and 0.696 in the derivation and validation groups. Our prediction model, SAMIMS, allowed for the stratification of the patients’ 30-day-mortality risk of surgery for acute mesenteric infarction.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/19/5937acute mesenteric infarctionsurgerybowel resectionpreoperative risk factorsscoring systemmortality |
| spellingShingle | Shang-Wei Lin Chung-Yen Chen Yu-Chieh Su Kun-Ta Wu Po-Chin Yu Yung-Chieh Yen Jian-Han Chen Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study Journal of Clinical Medicine acute mesenteric infarction surgery bowel resection preoperative risk factors scoring system mortality |
| title | Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study |
| title_full | Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study |
| title_fullStr | Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study |
| title_short | Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study |
| title_sort | mortality prediction model before surgery for acute mesenteric infarction a population based study |
| topic | acute mesenteric infarction surgery bowel resection preoperative risk factors scoring system mortality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/11/19/5937 |
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