A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC
Large-scale reactor simulation often requires the use of Monte Carlo calculation techniques to estimate important reactor parameters. One drawback of these Monte Carlo calculation techniques is they inevitably result in some uncertainty in calculated quantities. The present study includes parametric...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573321005507 |
| _version_ | 1818913818572488704 |
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| author | Dean Price Andrew Maile Joshua Peterson-Droogh Derreck Blight |
| author_facet | Dean Price Andrew Maile Joshua Peterson-Droogh Derreck Blight |
| author_sort | Dean Price |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Large-scale reactor simulation often requires the use of Monte Carlo calculation techniques to estimate important reactor parameters. One drawback of these Monte Carlo calculation techniques is they inevitably result in some uncertainty in calculated quantities. The present study includes parametric uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) on the Advanced Test Reactor Critical (ATRC) facility housed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and addresses some complications due to Monte Carlo uncertainty when performing these analyses. This approach for UQ/SA includes consideration of Monte Carlo code uncertainty in computed sensitivities, consideration of uncertainty from directly measured parameters and a comparison of results obtained from brute-force Monte Carlo UQ versus UQ obtained from a surrogate model. These methodologies are applied to the uncertainty and sensitivity of keff for two sets of uncertain parameters involving fuel plate geometry and fuel plate composition.Results indicate that the less computationally-expensive method for uncertainty quantification involving a linear surrogate model provides accurate estimations for keff uncertainty and the Monte Carlo uncertainty in calculated keff values can have a large effect on computed linear model parameters for parameters with low influence on keff. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:36:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d674dcf045eb44b0986f56ce07b561d9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1738-5733 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:36:32Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nuclear Engineering and Technology |
| spelling | doaj.art-d674dcf045eb44b0986f56ce07b561d92022-12-21T20:01:35ZengElsevierNuclear Engineering and Technology1738-57332022-03-01543790802A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRCDean Price0Andrew Maile1Joshua Peterson-Droogh2Derreck Blight3Corresponding author.; Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID, 83415-3885, USAIdaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID, 83415-3885, USAIdaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID, 83415-3885, USAIdaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID, 83415-3885, USALarge-scale reactor simulation often requires the use of Monte Carlo calculation techniques to estimate important reactor parameters. One drawback of these Monte Carlo calculation techniques is they inevitably result in some uncertainty in calculated quantities. The present study includes parametric uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) on the Advanced Test Reactor Critical (ATRC) facility housed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and addresses some complications due to Monte Carlo uncertainty when performing these analyses. This approach for UQ/SA includes consideration of Monte Carlo code uncertainty in computed sensitivities, consideration of uncertainty from directly measured parameters and a comparison of results obtained from brute-force Monte Carlo UQ versus UQ obtained from a surrogate model. These methodologies are applied to the uncertainty and sensitivity of keff for two sets of uncertain parameters involving fuel plate geometry and fuel plate composition.Results indicate that the less computationally-expensive method for uncertainty quantification involving a linear surrogate model provides accurate estimations for keff uncertainty and the Monte Carlo uncertainty in calculated keff values can have a large effect on computed linear model parameters for parameters with low influence on keff.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573321005507Advanced test reactor criticalAdvanced test reactorATRCUncertainty quantificationCriticalitySensitivity analysis |
| spellingShingle | Dean Price Andrew Maile Joshua Peterson-Droogh Derreck Blight A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC Nuclear Engineering and Technology Advanced test reactor critical Advanced test reactor ATRC Uncertainty quantification Criticality Sensitivity analysis |
| title | A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC |
| title_full | A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC |
| title_fullStr | A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC |
| title_full_unstemmed | A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC |
| title_short | A methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to Monte Carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the ATRC |
| title_sort | methodology for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for responses subject to monte carlo uncertainty with application to fuel plate characteristics in the atrc |
| topic | Advanced test reactor critical Advanced test reactor ATRC Uncertainty quantification Criticality Sensitivity analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1738573321005507 |
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