Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia
Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21006014 |
| _version_ | 1818734521426640896 |
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| author | Jiangyue Li Xi Chen Alishir Kurban Tim Van de Voorde Philippe De Maeyer Chi Zhang |
| author_facet | Jiangyue Li Xi Chen Alishir Kurban Tim Van de Voorde Philippe De Maeyer Chi Zhang |
| author_sort | Jiangyue Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021–2100) variations in water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation (−4.11% to −19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995–2015), four ESs will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive correlation (R = 0.47–0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services. |
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d6e1e4b72cff424bad2312f1a95f07d9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T00:06:41Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-d6e1e4b72cff424bad2312f1a95f07d92022-12-21T21:27:46ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2021-10-01129107936Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central AsiaJiangyue Li0Xi Chen1Alishir Kurban2Tim Van de Voorde3Philippe De Maeyer4Chi Zhang5State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Department of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent 9000, BelgiumDepartment of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent 9000, BelgiumDepartment of Geography, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-information, Ghent 9000, BelgiumState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi 276000, China; Corresponding author at: Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection, College of Resources and Environment, Linyi University, Linyi, China.Global climate change and human activities are expected to have far-reaching implications for the associations between ecosystem services (ESs), especially in arid regions. Here, Central Asia (CA) was taken as a case study to describe the complex relationship among key ESs under the combined effects of future climate change and socioeconomic development. We propose a new framework that integrates the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model and integrated valuation of ESs and trade-offs (InVEST) model. A four-model ensemble mean from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) was chosen to project future (2021–2100) variations in water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon storage (CS) and habitat quality (HQ). Spearman correlation was adopted to analyze the trade-offs and synergies between multiple ESs. Results showed that cropland degradation (−4.11% to −19.93%) and urban (+33.14% to +127.96%) and forestland (+5.31% to +25.52%) expansion will be the main forms of future land-use change in CA. Compared with the reference period (1995–2015), four ESs will exhibit different decreasing trends across CA under the three scenarios. We observed that the risk of soil erosion will increase in the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan; cropland degradation and urban expansion would lead to a sharp reduction of CS and HQ in the Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin and southern Turkmenistan, especially in SSP245 scenario. We found that the weak pairwise correlations between HQ, SC and CS will be strengthened (R = 0.22–0.58; p < 0.05) in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, whereas the significant positive correlation (R = 0.47–0.60; p < 0.01) between WY and SC will be weakened. An important information/recommendation provided by this study is that different management strategies should be designed in accordance with the major interactions among water, soil, carbon and biodiversity services.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21006014Ecosystem services (ESs)Representative concentration pathways (RCPs)Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs)Future land use simulation (FLUS)Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) |
| spellingShingle | Jiangyue Li Xi Chen Alishir Kurban Tim Van de Voorde Philippe De Maeyer Chi Zhang Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia Ecological Indicators Ecosystem services (ESs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Future land use simulation (FLUS) Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) |
| title | Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia |
| title_full | Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia |
| title_fullStr | Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia |
| title_short | Coupled SSPs-RCPs scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water-soil-carbon-biodiversity services in Central Asia |
| title_sort | coupled ssps rcps scenarios to project the future dynamic variations of water soil carbon biodiversity services in central asia |
| topic | Ecosystem services (ESs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Future land use simulation (FLUS) Integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21006014 |
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