Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection
Study region: Nenjiang River Basin (NRB), Northeast China. Study focus: Water safety management and sustainable development planning increasingly seek to incorporate the impact of reservoirs on downstream floods and droughts; while the effectiveness of reservoir operation in regulating flood and dro...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001404 |
| _version_ | 1827920531858391040 |
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| author | Jingxuan Sun Wei Chen Boting Hu Y. Jun Xu Guangxin Zhang Yanfeng Wu Baojun Hu Zheng Song |
| author_facet | Jingxuan Sun Wei Chen Boting Hu Y. Jun Xu Guangxin Zhang Yanfeng Wu Baojun Hu Zheng Song |
| author_sort | Jingxuan Sun |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Nenjiang River Basin (NRB), Northeast China. Study focus: Water safety management and sustainable development planning increasingly seek to incorporate the impact of reservoirs on downstream floods and droughts; while the effectiveness of reservoir operation in regulating flood and drought risks under climate change has not been assessed extensively. We focus on discerning whether and to what extent reservoirs can mitigate the risk of hydrologic extremes from the perspective of historical and future climate change. New hydrological insight for the region: We found that coupling reservoir operations into basin hydrological simulation can efficiently improve model capacity to capture both flood and hydrological drought characteristics. The Nierji Reservoir contributed largely to reducing historical flood and drought risks in the NRB. However, the risk of floods and hydrological droughts will increase under future climate change, and reservoir operations cannot completely eliminate the increasing risks of future floods and hydrological droughts. The annual probability of flooding under different future scenarios will exceed 48%, much higher than the 22.2% for the historical period. The frequency of droughts is anticipated to increase by 139.20% under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 370 scenario. To mitigate the increase of flood and drought risks caused by future climate change, it is necessary to further optimize reservoir scheduling principles, thereby improving the basin's resilience to hydrological extremes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:11:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d71e627a59c04a02967397114d9a8f6d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:11:03Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-d71e627a59c04a02967397114d9a8f6d2023-06-21T06:54:57ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-08-0148101453Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projectionJingxuan Sun0Wei Chen1Boting Hu2Y. Jun Xu3Guangxin Zhang4Yanfeng Wu5Baojun Hu6Zheng Song7Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaBasin Planning& Policy Research Center, Songliao Water Resources Commission, Changchun 130021, ChinaNortheast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaSchool of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, 227 Highland Road, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USANortheast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, ChinaNortheast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China; Corresponding author.Nenjiang Ni'erji Water Resources and Hydropower Co., Ltd, Qiqihar 161005, ChinaNenjiang Ni'erji Water Resources and Hydropower Co., Ltd, Qiqihar 161005, ChinaStudy region: Nenjiang River Basin (NRB), Northeast China. Study focus: Water safety management and sustainable development planning increasingly seek to incorporate the impact of reservoirs on downstream floods and droughts; while the effectiveness of reservoir operation in regulating flood and drought risks under climate change has not been assessed extensively. We focus on discerning whether and to what extent reservoirs can mitigate the risk of hydrologic extremes from the perspective of historical and future climate change. New hydrological insight for the region: We found that coupling reservoir operations into basin hydrological simulation can efficiently improve model capacity to capture both flood and hydrological drought characteristics. The Nierji Reservoir contributed largely to reducing historical flood and drought risks in the NRB. However, the risk of floods and hydrological droughts will increase under future climate change, and reservoir operations cannot completely eliminate the increasing risks of future floods and hydrological droughts. The annual probability of flooding under different future scenarios will exceed 48%, much higher than the 22.2% for the historical period. The frequency of droughts is anticipated to increase by 139.20% under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 370 scenario. To mitigate the increase of flood and drought risks caused by future climate change, it is necessary to further optimize reservoir scheduling principles, thereby improving the basin's resilience to hydrological extremes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001404Climate changeHydrologic projectionFloods and droughtsReservoir operationsNenjiang River Basin |
| spellingShingle | Jingxuan Sun Wei Chen Boting Hu Y. Jun Xu Guangxin Zhang Yanfeng Wu Baojun Hu Zheng Song Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change Hydrologic projection Floods and droughts Reservoir operations Nenjiang River Basin |
| title | Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection |
| title_full | Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection |
| title_fullStr | Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection |
| title_short | Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change: Historical assessment and future projection |
| title_sort | roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change historical assessment and future projection |
| topic | Climate change Hydrologic projection Floods and droughts Reservoir operations Nenjiang River Basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823001404 |
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