Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes
The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabil...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 |
| _version_ | 1797747265612283904 |
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| author | Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang |
| author_facet | Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang |
| author_sort | Linfei Yu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:49:20Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7699a0c98654393ac41a7895fa3deda2023-08-09T15:19:35ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-01171212400410.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changesLinfei Yu0Guoyong Leng1Qiuhong Tang2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, People’s Republic of China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100049, People’s Republic of ChinaThe Arctic has warmed rapidly over the past century, with widespread negative impacts on local and surrounding environments. Previous studies have estimated the overall effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents on Arctic warming. However, the spatial patterns and temporal variabilities of the separate contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), natural forcing agents (NATs; solar radiation and volcanic activity combined) and other anthropogenic (OANT) forcing agents (which are dominated by aerosols) on Arctic land surface air temperatures remain underexamined. Here, we use CMIP6 (the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models to quantify the separate contributions of GHGs, NATs and OANT forcing agents to Arctic land surface air temperature changes and analyze their spatial and temporal change patterns from 1915 to 2014. The results show that GHGs alone have warmed the Arctic by 2.72 °C/century (90% confidence interval: 1.42 °C–4.03 °C), 61.8% of which has been offset by OANT agents. The GHG-induced warming peaks are found in Ellesmere Island, Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard (above 4 °C/century), while the largest cooling effects (above −2 °C/century) induced by OANT agents occurred in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Severnaya Zemlya. A further temporal evolution analysis indicates that the effects of GHGs and OANT forcings have been gradually and robustly detected over time; this increases our confidence in projecting future Arctic climate changes via CMIP6 models.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3Arcticgreenhouse gasesaerosolnatural forcingclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Linfei Yu Guoyong Leng Qiuhong Tang Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes Environmental Research Letters Arctic greenhouse gases aerosol natural forcing climate change |
| title | Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
| title_full | Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
| title_fullStr | Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
| title_short | Varying contributions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and natural forcings to Arctic land surface air temperature changes |
| title_sort | varying contributions of greenhouse gases aerosols and natural forcings to arctic land surface air temperature changes |
| topic | Arctic greenhouse gases aerosol natural forcing climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c3 |
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