Enhancing Predictability Assessment: An Overview and Analysis of Predictability Measures for Time Series and Network Links

Driven by the variety of available measures intended to estimate predictability of diverse objects such as time series and network links, this paper presents a comprehensive overview of the existing literature in this domain. Our overview delves into predictability from two distinct perspectives: th...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Alexandra Bezbochina, Elizaveta Stavinova, Anton Kovantsev, Petr Chunaev
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023-11-01
Series:Entropy
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/11/1542
Description
Summary:Driven by the variety of available measures intended to estimate predictability of diverse objects such as time series and network links, this paper presents a comprehensive overview of the existing literature in this domain. Our overview delves into predictability from two distinct perspectives: the <i>intrinsic</i> predictability, which represents a data property independent of the chosen forecasting model and serves as the highest achievable forecasting quality level, and the <i>realized</i> predictability, which represents a chosen quality metric for a specific pair of data and model. The reviewed measures are used to assess predictability across different objects, starting from time series (univariate, multivariate, and categorical) to network links. Through experiments, we establish a noticeable relationship between measures of realized and intrinsic predictability in both generated and real-world time series data (with the correlation coefficient being statistically significant at a 5% significance level). The discovered correlation in this research holds significant value for tasks related to evaluating time series complexity and their potential to be accurately predicted.
ISSN:1099-4300