Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020

There are conflicting predictions of climate change effects and landuse on the discharge of the Mississippi River–the largest river in North America. Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset...

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Main Author: R. Eugene Turner
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2022-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9731447/?tool=EBI
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author R. Eugene Turner
author_facet R. Eugene Turner
author_sort R. Eugene Turner
collection DOAJ
description There are conflicting predictions of climate change effects and landuse on the discharge of the Mississippi River–the largest river in North America. Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset of the annual average, minimum, and maximum discharges at five stations draining the Mississippi River watershed: at Clinton, IA, Herman, MO, St. Louis, MO, Louisville, KY, and Vicksburg, MS. A spline/Lowess analysis tested for trends and inflection points. All three discharge metrics increased, and the minimum annual discharge increased faster than either the annual maximum discharge or annual average discharge. A regression analysis of variations in average discharges from 1950 to 2020 at these five locations demonstrates correlations to the air pressure differentials represented in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for January, February and March. The longest data set, for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, demonstrates a similar direct relationship with the NAO Index from 1826 to 1969. After 1969, however, the relationship between discharge and the NAO Index is insignificant even though the range of Index values overlap for the two intervals. A breakpoint and rise in discharge ca. 1970 is consistent with well-documented land cover and land use changes occurring then that resulted in reduced evapotranspiration as homogenous cropping systems were established, and a higher percent of precipitation was routed into groundwater and baseflow. The Bonnet Carré Spillway at New Orleans, LA, is being opened more frequently to reduce flood threats as the river’s stage increasingly reaches the threshold for opening it. Significant water quality impairments in the coastal zone will appear or be sustained with these openings. These data may be useful for climate change assessments through modeling or synthetic assessments in combination with other data sets.
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spelling doaj.art-d7a563730bb04eae8868cf1c4350189f2022-12-22T04:41:07ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-011712Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020R. Eugene TurnerThere are conflicting predictions of climate change effects and landuse on the discharge of the Mississippi River–the largest river in North America. Are discharges becoming higher or lower, and if they did change, then when? To address these uncertainties I compiled a two-hundred-year long dataset of the annual average, minimum, and maximum discharges at five stations draining the Mississippi River watershed: at Clinton, IA, Herman, MO, St. Louis, MO, Louisville, KY, and Vicksburg, MS. A spline/Lowess analysis tested for trends and inflection points. All three discharge metrics increased, and the minimum annual discharge increased faster than either the annual maximum discharge or annual average discharge. A regression analysis of variations in average discharges from 1950 to 2020 at these five locations demonstrates correlations to the air pressure differentials represented in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index for January, February and March. The longest data set, for the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, demonstrates a similar direct relationship with the NAO Index from 1826 to 1969. After 1969, however, the relationship between discharge and the NAO Index is insignificant even though the range of Index values overlap for the two intervals. A breakpoint and rise in discharge ca. 1970 is consistent with well-documented land cover and land use changes occurring then that resulted in reduced evapotranspiration as homogenous cropping systems were established, and a higher percent of precipitation was routed into groundwater and baseflow. The Bonnet Carré Spillway at New Orleans, LA, is being opened more frequently to reduce flood threats as the river’s stage increasingly reaches the threshold for opening it. Significant water quality impairments in the coastal zone will appear or be sustained with these openings. These data may be useful for climate change assessments through modeling or synthetic assessments in combination with other data sets.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9731447/?tool=EBI
spellingShingle R. Eugene Turner
Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
PLoS ONE
title Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
title_full Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
title_fullStr Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
title_full_unstemmed Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
title_short Variability in the discharge of the Mississippi River and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
title_sort variability in the discharge of the mississippi river and tributaries from 1817 to 2020
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9731447/?tool=EBI
work_keys_str_mv AT reugeneturner variabilityinthedischargeofthemississippiriverandtributariesfrom1817to2020