Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin
The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
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| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/1910 |
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| author | Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh Alireza Massah Bavani |
| author_facet | Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh Alireza Massah Bavani |
| author_sort | Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question as to whether there is a difference between estimating the return period of maximum instantaneous flood in stationary and non-stationary conditions. First, the values of the temperature, wind speed, and rainfall of the study area under the two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 of the Hadley Centre coupled Model, version3 (HadCM3) model were downscaled. In the following, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was utilized to generate daily runoff. For converting the daily discharge to the maximum instantaneous flood, four methods of Fuller, Sangal, Fill Steiner, and artificial neural network (ANN) were compared. Finally, the maximum instantaneous floods of the future period were introduced to the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software. Based on the results obtained from the research, the lack of considering the non-stationary conditions in the flood frequency analysis can result in underestimating the maximum instantaneous flood, which can also provide more risks for the related hydraulic structures. HIGHLIGHTS
The temperature will increase and rainfall will reduce in the future.;
The results of the VIC model represent that the daily runoff in the future period will reduce compared to the past periods.;
The maximum instantaneous floods under the stationary assumption are smaller than the maximum instantaneous floods under the non-stationary assumption; this difference increases by expanding the return period.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:45:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7a9ac05e6aa4b559ba5ec714b245af2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T13:45:20Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7a9ac05e6aa4b559ba5ec714b245af22022-12-21T21:46:11ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542021-08-011251910192910.2166/wcc.2021.074074Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basinNazanin Sadeghi Loyeh0Alireza Massah Bavani1 Water Resource Engineering, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abureyhan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abureyhan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran The frequency analysis of the maximum instantaneous flood is mostly based on the stationary assumption. The purpose of the present study is to compare the results of maximum instantaneous flood analysis under stationary and non-stationary conditions in Ghareh Sou basin, and also answer the question as to whether there is a difference between estimating the return period of maximum instantaneous flood in stationary and non-stationary conditions. First, the values of the temperature, wind speed, and rainfall of the study area under the two scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 of the Hadley Centre coupled Model, version3 (HadCM3) model were downscaled. In the following, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was utilized to generate daily runoff. For converting the daily discharge to the maximum instantaneous flood, four methods of Fuller, Sangal, Fill Steiner, and artificial neural network (ANN) were compared. Finally, the maximum instantaneous floods of the future period were introduced to the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software. Based on the results obtained from the research, the lack of considering the non-stationary conditions in the flood frequency analysis can result in underestimating the maximum instantaneous flood, which can also provide more risks for the related hydraulic structures. HIGHLIGHTS The temperature will increase and rainfall will reduce in the future.; The results of the VIC model represent that the daily runoff in the future period will reduce compared to the past periods.; The maximum instantaneous floods under the stationary assumption are smaller than the maximum instantaneous floods under the non-stationary assumption; this difference increases by expanding the return period.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/1910climate changedownscalingneva softwarenon-stationaryvic model |
| spellingShingle | Nazanin Sadeghi Loyeh Alireza Massah Bavani Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin Journal of Water and Climate Change climate change downscaling neva software non-stationary vic model |
| title | Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin |
| title_full | Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin |
| title_fullStr | Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin |
| title_short | Daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non-stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period: Case study Ghareh Sou basin |
| title_sort | daily maximum runoff frequency analysis under non stationary conditions due to climate change in the future period case study ghareh sou basin |
| topic | climate change downscaling neva software non-stationary vic model |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/12/5/1910 |
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