Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders
A variant of the susceptible-infected-recovered model for an inhomogeneous population is introduced to account for the effect of variability in susceptibility and infectiousness across a population. An initial formulation of this dynamics leads to infinitely many differential equations. Our model, h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Physical Society
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Physical Review Research |
| Online Access: | http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.033283 |
| _version_ | 1797210960580050944 |
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| author | K. Kawagoe M. Rychnovsky S. Chang G. Huber L. M. Li J. Miller R. Pnini B. Veytsman D. Yllanes |
| author_facet | K. Kawagoe M. Rychnovsky S. Chang G. Huber L. M. Li J. Miller R. Pnini B. Veytsman D. Yllanes |
| author_sort | K. Kawagoe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A variant of the susceptible-infected-recovered model for an inhomogeneous population is introduced to account for the effect of variability in susceptibility and infectiousness across a population. An initial formulation of this dynamics leads to infinitely many differential equations. Our model, however, can be reduced to a single first-order one-dimensional differential equation. Using this approach, we provide quantitative solutions for different distributions. In particular, we use GPS data from ∼10^{7} cell phones to determine an empirical distribution of the number of individual contacts and use this to infer a possible distribution of susceptibility and infectivity. We quantify the effect of superspreaders on the early growth rate R_{0} of the infection and on the final epidemic size, the total number of people who are ever infected. We discuss the features of the distribution that contribute most to the dynamics of the infection. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:18:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7b994914f5f45efbd559513d7ffd695 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2643-1564 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T10:18:54Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | American Physical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Physical Review Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7b994914f5f45efbd559513d7ffd6952024-04-12T17:14:25ZengAmerican Physical SocietyPhysical Review Research2643-15642021-09-013303328310.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.033283Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreadersK. KawagoeM. RychnovskyS. ChangG. HuberL. M. LiJ. MillerR. PniniB. VeytsmanD. YllanesA variant of the susceptible-infected-recovered model for an inhomogeneous population is introduced to account for the effect of variability in susceptibility and infectiousness across a population. An initial formulation of this dynamics leads to infinitely many differential equations. Our model, however, can be reduced to a single first-order one-dimensional differential equation. Using this approach, we provide quantitative solutions for different distributions. In particular, we use GPS data from ∼10^{7} cell phones to determine an empirical distribution of the number of individual contacts and use this to infer a possible distribution of susceptibility and infectivity. We quantify the effect of superspreaders on the early growth rate R_{0} of the infection and on the final epidemic size, the total number of people who are ever infected. We discuss the features of the distribution that contribute most to the dynamics of the infection.http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.033283 |
| spellingShingle | K. Kawagoe M. Rychnovsky S. Chang G. Huber L. M. Li J. Miller R. Pnini B. Veytsman D. Yllanes Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders Physical Review Research |
| title | Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders |
| title_full | Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders |
| title_fullStr | Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders |
| title_short | Epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders |
| title_sort | epidemic dynamics in inhomogeneous populations and the role of superspreaders |
| url | http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.033283 |
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