Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]
Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wav...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wellcome
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Wellcome Open Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 |
| _version_ | 1797996526535966720 |
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| author | Sophie Uyoga Ambrose Agweyu Rabia Aziza Edwine Barasa Benjamin Tsofa Philip Bejon Edward Otieno Morris Ogero John Ojal Vincent Were Samuel P. C. Brand Ivy K. Kombe Emelda A. Okiro George M. Warimwe Caroline Mburu J. Anthony G. Scott Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa Charles N. Agoti Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier Patrick Amoth Kadondi Kasera Rashid Aman Mercy Mwangangi Matt J. Keeling Wangari Ng’ang’a D. James Nokes |
| author_facet | Sophie Uyoga Ambrose Agweyu Rabia Aziza Edwine Barasa Benjamin Tsofa Philip Bejon Edward Otieno Morris Ogero John Ojal Vincent Were Samuel P. C. Brand Ivy K. Kombe Emelda A. Okiro George M. Warimwe Caroline Mburu J. Anthony G. Scott Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa Charles N. Agoti Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier Patrick Amoth Kadondi Kasera Rashid Aman Mercy Mwangangi Matt J. Keeling Wangari Ng’ang’a D. James Nokes |
| author_sort | Sophie Uyoga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T10:18:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2398-502X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T10:18:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Wellcome |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wellcome Open Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7c6cef1f5d941efbd514c1f3c0a5ccc2022-12-22T04:29:51ZengWellcomeWellcome Open Research2398-502X2022-09-01620370Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]Sophie Uyoga0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1746-7873Ambrose Agweyu1Rabia Aziza2Edwine Barasa3Benjamin Tsofa4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-1771Philip Bejon5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2135-7549Edward Otieno6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8014-7306Morris Ogero7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0117-6289John Ojal8Vincent Were9Samuel P. C. Brand10https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0645-5367Ivy K. Kombe11Emelda A. Okiro12https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9543-8360George M. Warimwe13https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4911-6333Caroline Mburu14J. Anthony G. Scott15Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa16https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2556-9407Charles N. Agoti17https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2160-567XLynette I. Ochola-Oyier18Patrick Amoth19Kadondi Kasera20Rashid Aman21Mercy Mwangangi22Matt J. Keeling23https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4639-4765Wangari Ng’ang’a24D. James Nokes25https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5426-1984Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, UKHealth Economics Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaHealth Economics Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, KenyaHealth Economics Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaHealth Economics Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, KenyaThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, UKKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaPopulation Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Nairobi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaMinistry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, KenyaMinistry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, KenyaMinistry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, KenyaMinistry of Health, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, KenyaThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, UKPresidential Policy & Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya, Nairobi, KenyaKenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme, Kilifi, KenyaPolicymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR caseseng |
| spellingShingle | Sophie Uyoga Ambrose Agweyu Rabia Aziza Edwine Barasa Benjamin Tsofa Philip Bejon Edward Otieno Morris Ogero John Ojal Vincent Were Samuel P. C. Brand Ivy K. Kombe Emelda A. Okiro George M. Warimwe Caroline Mburu J. Anthony G. Scott Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa Charles N. Agoti Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier Patrick Amoth Kadondi Kasera Rashid Aman Mercy Mwangangi Matt J. Keeling Wangari Ng’ang’a D. James Nokes Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] Wellcome Open Research SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng |
| title | Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_full | Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_fullStr | Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_short | Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations] |
| title_sort | revealing the extent of the first wave of the covid 19 pandemic in kenya based on serological and pcr test data version 3 peer review 2 approved 1 approved with reservations |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 Kenya dynamic model serology PCR cases eng |
| url | https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/6-127/v3 |
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