Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China
Hydrogen is crucial in achieving global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Existing market estimates typically presume linear or exponential growth but fail to consider how market demand responds to the declining cost of underlying technologies. To address this, this study utilizes a lea...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/12/4821 |
| _version_ | 1797595066723729408 |
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| author | Danlu Xu Zhoubin Liu Jiahui Zhu Qin Fang Rui Shan |
| author_facet | Danlu Xu Zhoubin Liu Jiahui Zhu Qin Fang Rui Shan |
| author_sort | Danlu Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hydrogen is crucial in achieving global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Existing market estimates typically presume linear or exponential growth but fail to consider how market demand responds to the declining cost of underlying technologies. To address this, this study utilizes a learning curve model to project the cost of electrolyzers and its subsequent impact on hydrogen market, aligning with a premise that the market demand is proportional to the cost of hydrogen. In a case study of China’s hydrogen market, projecting from 2020 to 2060, we observed substantial differences in market evolution compared to exponential growth scenarios. Contrary to exponential growth scenarios, China’s hydrogen market experiences faster growth during the 2020–2040 period rather than later. Such differences underscore the necessity for proactive strategic planning in emerging technology markets, particularly for those experiencing rapid cost decline, such as hydrogen. The framework can also be extended to other markets by using local data, providing valuable insights to investors, policymakers, and developers engaged in the hydrogen market. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:31:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7d36475779e4e9a9f746c568a8820c0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T02:31:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7d36475779e4e9a9f746c568a8820c02023-11-18T10:14:33ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732023-06-011612482110.3390/en16124821Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in ChinaDanlu Xu0Zhoubin Liu1Jiahui Zhu2Qin Fang3Rui Shan4Center of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Zhejiang Branch, State Grid Corporation of China, Hangzhou 310007, ChinaCenter of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Zhejiang Branch, State Grid Corporation of China, Hangzhou 310007, ChinaJianjing Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310004, ChinaCenter of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Zhejiang Branch, State Grid Corporation of China, Hangzhou 310007, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USAHydrogen is crucial in achieving global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Existing market estimates typically presume linear or exponential growth but fail to consider how market demand responds to the declining cost of underlying technologies. To address this, this study utilizes a learning curve model to project the cost of electrolyzers and its subsequent impact on hydrogen market, aligning with a premise that the market demand is proportional to the cost of hydrogen. In a case study of China’s hydrogen market, projecting from 2020 to 2060, we observed substantial differences in market evolution compared to exponential growth scenarios. Contrary to exponential growth scenarios, China’s hydrogen market experiences faster growth during the 2020–2040 period rather than later. Such differences underscore the necessity for proactive strategic planning in emerging technology markets, particularly for those experiencing rapid cost decline, such as hydrogen. The framework can also be extended to other markets by using local data, providing valuable insights to investors, policymakers, and developers engaged in the hydrogen market.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/12/4821learning curve modelhydrogenmarket dynamicsChinaelectrolyzer |
| spellingShingle | Danlu Xu Zhoubin Liu Jiahui Zhu Qin Fang Rui Shan Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China Energies learning curve model hydrogen market dynamics China electrolyzer |
| title | Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China |
| title_full | Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China |
| title_fullStr | Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China |
| title_short | Linking Cost Decline and Demand Surge in the Hydrogen Market: A Case Study in China |
| title_sort | linking cost decline and demand surge in the hydrogen market a case study in china |
| topic | learning curve model hydrogen market dynamics China electrolyzer |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/12/4821 |
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