Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II
EuroSCORE II is one of the most widely utilized cardiovascular surgery risk scoring systems. Recently, a new online score calculator, namely the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA), was launched to predict 30-day surgical mortality for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) p...
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MDPI AG
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/12/14/4728 |
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| author | Ming Ma Hailong Cao Kai Li Jun Pan Qing Zhou Xinlong Tang Xichun Qin Feng Zhu Dongjin Wang |
| author_facet | Ming Ma Hailong Cao Kai Li Jun Pan Qing Zhou Xinlong Tang Xichun Qin Feng Zhu Dongjin Wang |
| author_sort | Ming Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | EuroSCORE II is one of the most widely utilized cardiovascular surgery risk scoring systems. Recently, a new online score calculator, namely the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA), was launched to predict 30-day surgical mortality for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive performance of these two scores. We calculated the two scores for 1346 ATAAD patients from January 2012 to December 2021. The overall performance was evaluated using Brier scores and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to assess diagnostic ability, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was utilized to evaluate calibration. The GERAADA score and EuroSCORE II predicted 30-day mortality rates of 14.7% and 3.1%, respectively, while the observed rate was 12.5%. The predictive ability of EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.708, 95% CI: 0.664–0.792) was superior to that of the GERAADA score (0.648, 95% CI: 0.605–0.692). The GERAADA score had higher sensitivity but lower specificity than EuroSCORE II. And the GERAADA score may overestimate mortality (0.76, 95% CI: 0.65–0.89), while EuroSCORE II may underestimate the mortality rate (3.17, 95% CI: 2.92–3.44). The EuroSCORE II was superior in predicting surgical mortality among ATAAD patients. But the observed 30-day mortality rate certified a good calibration for the GERAADA score. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:58:07Z |
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| id | doaj.art-d7d9c754ebe748298e89789135f85a25 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-0383 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T00:58:07Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
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| series | Journal of Clinical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7d9c754ebe748298e89789135f85a252023-11-18T19:53:05ZengMDPI AGJournal of Clinical Medicine2077-03832023-07-011214472810.3390/jcm12144728Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation IIMing Ma0Hailong Cao1Kai Li2Jun Pan3Qing Zhou4Xinlong Tang5Xichun Qin6Feng Zhu7Dongjin Wang8Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaDepartment of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210008, ChinaEuroSCORE II is one of the most widely utilized cardiovascular surgery risk scoring systems. Recently, a new online score calculator, namely the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA), was launched to predict 30-day surgical mortality for acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive performance of these two scores. We calculated the two scores for 1346 ATAAD patients from January 2012 to December 2021. The overall performance was evaluated using Brier scores and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were employed to assess diagnostic ability, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was utilized to evaluate calibration. The GERAADA score and EuroSCORE II predicted 30-day mortality rates of 14.7% and 3.1%, respectively, while the observed rate was 12.5%. The predictive ability of EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.708, 95% CI: 0.664–0.792) was superior to that of the GERAADA score (0.648, 95% CI: 0.605–0.692). The GERAADA score had higher sensitivity but lower specificity than EuroSCORE II. And the GERAADA score may overestimate mortality (0.76, 95% CI: 0.65–0.89), while EuroSCORE II may underestimate the mortality rate (3.17, 95% CI: 2.92–3.44). The EuroSCORE II was superior in predicting surgical mortality among ATAAD patients. But the observed 30-day mortality rate certified a good calibration for the GERAADA score.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/12/14/4728aortic dissectionEuroSCORE IIGERAADA scoreonline risk prediction modelssurgery mortality |
| spellingShingle | Ming Ma Hailong Cao Kai Li Jun Pan Qing Zhou Xinlong Tang Xichun Qin Feng Zhu Dongjin Wang Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II Journal of Clinical Medicine aortic dissection EuroSCORE II GERAADA score online risk prediction models surgery mortality |
| title | Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II |
| title_full | Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II |
| title_short | Evaluation of Two Online Risk Prediction Models for the Mortality Rate of Acute Type A Aortic Dissection Surgery: The German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II |
| title_sort | evaluation of two online risk prediction models for the mortality rate of acute type a aortic dissection surgery the german registry of acute aortic dissection type a score and the european system for cardiac operative risk evaluation ii |
| topic | aortic dissection EuroSCORE II GERAADA score online risk prediction models surgery mortality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/12/14/4728 |
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