Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions
Epidemic dynamics, a kind of biological mechanisms describing microorganism propagation within populations, can inspire a wide range of novel designs of engineering technologies, such as advanced wireless communication and networking, global immunization on complex systems, and so on. There have bee...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IEEE
2017-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
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| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7915684/ |
| _version_ | 1818415303873265664 |
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| author | Daxin Tian Chao Liu Zhengguo Sheng Min Chen Yunpeng Wang |
| author_facet | Daxin Tian Chao Liu Zhengguo Sheng Min Chen Yunpeng Wang |
| author_sort | Daxin Tian |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Epidemic dynamics, a kind of biological mechanisms describing microorganism propagation within populations, can inspire a wide range of novel designs of engineering technologies, such as advanced wireless communication and networking, global immunization on complex systems, and so on. There have been many studies on epidemic spread, but most of them focus on closed regions where the population size is fixed. In this paper, we proposed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model with a variable contact rate to depict the dynamic spread processes of epidemics among heterogeneous individuals in open finite regions. We took the varied number of individuals and the dynamic migration rate into account in the model. We validated the effectiveness of our proposed model by simulating epidemics spread in different scenarios. We found that the average infected possibility of individuals, the population size of infectious individuals in the regions, and the infection ability of epidemics have great impact on the outbreak sizes of epidemics. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can well describe epidemics spread in open finite regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T11:32:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7e1b43707dd4901b5df1e642106499e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T11:32:51Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7e1b43707dd4901b5df1e642106499e2022-12-21T23:03:14ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362017-01-0159673968110.1109/ACCESS.2017.26999707915684Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite RegionsDaxin Tian0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7796-5650Chao Liu1Zhengguo Sheng2Min Chen3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0960-4447Yunpeng Wang4Beijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems and Safety Control, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, ChinaBeijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems and Safety Control, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Engineering and Design, University of Sussex, Richmond, U.K.School of Computer Science and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaBeijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems and Safety Control, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, ChinaEpidemic dynamics, a kind of biological mechanisms describing microorganism propagation within populations, can inspire a wide range of novel designs of engineering technologies, such as advanced wireless communication and networking, global immunization on complex systems, and so on. There have been many studies on epidemic spread, but most of them focus on closed regions where the population size is fixed. In this paper, we proposed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model with a variable contact rate to depict the dynamic spread processes of epidemics among heterogeneous individuals in open finite regions. We took the varied number of individuals and the dynamic migration rate into account in the model. We validated the effectiveness of our proposed model by simulating epidemics spread in different scenarios. We found that the average infected possibility of individuals, the population size of infectious individuals in the regions, and the infection ability of epidemics have great impact on the outbreak sizes of epidemics. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can well describe epidemics spread in open finite regions.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7915684/Epidemic dynamicsspreading behaviorsystem model |
| spellingShingle | Daxin Tian Chao Liu Zhengguo Sheng Min Chen Yunpeng Wang Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions IEEE Access Epidemic dynamics spreading behavior system model |
| title | Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions |
| title_full | Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions |
| title_fullStr | Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions |
| title_short | Analytical Model of Spread of Epidemics in Open Finite Regions |
| title_sort | analytical model of spread of epidemics in open finite regions |
| topic | Epidemic dynamics spreading behavior system model |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7915684/ |
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