Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors
For this paper, a new global atmospheric model (Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem; GRIST) with improved sub-grid scale orographic parameterization was verified and assessed, with an emphasis on the precipitation caused by typhoons. Four typical typhoon cases were selected for the verific...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/11/1607 |
| _version_ | 1797460215248977920 |
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| author | Xu-Zhe Chen Yu-Long Ma Chun-Qiao Lin Ling-Li Fan |
| author_facet | Xu-Zhe Chen Yu-Long Ma Chun-Qiao Lin Ling-Li Fan |
| author_sort | Xu-Zhe Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | For this paper, a new global atmospheric model (Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem; GRIST) with improved sub-grid scale orographic parameterization was verified and assessed, with an emphasis on the precipitation caused by typhoons. Four typical typhoon cases were selected for the verification of the model. The results indicate that, compared to the control experiments, the sensitivity experiments consistently simulated the trends in the three-hour cumulative precipitation changes and the high-value regions of total precipitation better. However, the improved experiments only had an ameliorating effect on the cumulative precipitation modelling biases for Typhoon LEKIMA and Typhoon HAGUPIT, not all of them. Precipitation bias is smaller on flat land than that on mountainous land, but the precipitation bias on windward/leeward slopes depends on the typhoon case. Precipitation modelling accuracy varies considerably between flat and mountainous terrain but very little between windward and leeward slopes. The precipitation simulation is poor for all terrains, with large precipitation thresholds in three typhoon cases, but for Typhoon HOTA, after improving the terrain, the model has the ability to forecast the heavy rainfall scenarios of the mountainous terrain. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:02:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d7e92f2538ca40309c685bf59e6593b9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T17:02:56Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-d7e92f2538ca40309c685bf59e6593b92023-11-24T14:28:23ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332023-10-011411160710.3390/atmos14111607Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic FactorsXu-Zhe Chen0Yu-Long Ma1Chun-Qiao Lin2Ling-Li Fan3College of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, ChinaGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Weather Research Center for Monitoring Warning and Forecasting, Shenzhen 518040, ChinaCollege of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, ChinaCollege of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, ChinaFor this paper, a new global atmospheric model (Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem; GRIST) with improved sub-grid scale orographic parameterization was verified and assessed, with an emphasis on the precipitation caused by typhoons. Four typical typhoon cases were selected for the verification of the model. The results indicate that, compared to the control experiments, the sensitivity experiments consistently simulated the trends in the three-hour cumulative precipitation changes and the high-value regions of total precipitation better. However, the improved experiments only had an ameliorating effect on the cumulative precipitation modelling biases for Typhoon LEKIMA and Typhoon HAGUPIT, not all of them. Precipitation bias is smaller on flat land than that on mountainous land, but the precipitation bias on windward/leeward slopes depends on the typhoon case. Precipitation modelling accuracy varies considerably between flat and mountainous terrain but very little between windward and leeward slopes. The precipitation simulation is poor for all terrains, with large precipitation thresholds in three typhoon cases, but for Typhoon HOTA, after improving the terrain, the model has the ability to forecast the heavy rainfall scenarios of the mountainous terrain.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/11/1607typhoon precipitationforecast skillmodel evaluationtopography |
| spellingShingle | Xu-Zhe Chen Yu-Long Ma Chun-Qiao Lin Ling-Li Fan Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors Atmosphere typhoon precipitation forecast skill model evaluation topography |
| title | Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors |
| title_full | Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors |
| title_fullStr | Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors |
| title_short | Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors |
| title_sort | assessment of typhoon precipitation forecasts based on topographic factors |
| topic | typhoon precipitation forecast skill model evaluation topography |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/11/1607 |
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