Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context
Summary: Background: Essential thrombocythemia (ET), a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), has a substantial risk of evolving into post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis (post-ET MF). This study aims to establish a prediction nomogram for early prediction of post-ET MF in ET patients. Methods:...
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Elsevier
2024-01-01
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| Series: | EClinicalMedicine |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023005552 |
| _version_ | 1797347091505217536 |
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| author | Danhong Xiang Xiudi Yang Honglan Qian Li Zhang Yanxia Han Yongcheng Sun Ying Lu Yu Chen Dan Cao Meiwei Hu Lifeng Wang Qinli Tang Dijiong Wu Guoyan Tian Hongyan Tong Jie Jin Jian Huang |
| author_facet | Danhong Xiang Xiudi Yang Honglan Qian Li Zhang Yanxia Han Yongcheng Sun Ying Lu Yu Chen Dan Cao Meiwei Hu Lifeng Wang Qinli Tang Dijiong Wu Guoyan Tian Hongyan Tong Jie Jin Jian Huang |
| author_sort | Danhong Xiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Essential thrombocythemia (ET), a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), has a substantial risk of evolving into post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis (post-ET MF). This study aims to establish a prediction nomogram for early prediction of post-ET MF in ET patients. Methods: The training cohort comprised 558 patients from 8 haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023, while the external validation cohort consisted of 165 patients from 6 additional haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identified independent risk factors and establish a nomogram to predict the post-ET MF free survival. Both bias-corrected area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves and concordance index (C-index) were employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Findings: Multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW), elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and the level of haemoglobin (Hb), a history of smoking and the presence of splenomegaly were independent risk factors for post-ET MF. The C-index displayed of the training and validation cohorts were 0.877 and 0.853. The 5 years, 10 years AUC values in training and external validation cohorts were 0.948, 0.769 and 0.978, 0.804 respectively. Bias-corrected curve is close to the ideal curve and revealed a strong consistency between actual observation and prediction. Interpretation: We developed a nomogram capable of predicting the post-ET MF free survival probability at 5 years and 10 years in ET patients. This tool helps doctors identify patients who need close monitoring and appropriate counselling. Funding: This research was funded by the Key R&D Program of Zhejiang (No. 2022C03137); the Public Technology Application Research Program of Zhejiang, China (No. LGF21H080003); and the Zhejiang Medical Association Clinical Medical Research special fund project (No. 2022ZYC-D09). |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:42:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d82c3562acb6457e99f10ff863e54ed7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2589-5370 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:42:54Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EClinicalMedicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-d82c3562acb6457e99f10ff863e54ed72024-01-25T05:23:32ZengElsevierEClinicalMedicine2589-53702024-01-0167102378Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in contextDanhong Xiang0Xiudi Yang1Honglan Qian2Li Zhang3Yanxia Han4Yongcheng Sun5Ying Lu6Yu Chen7Dan Cao8Meiwei Hu9Lifeng Wang10Qinli Tang11Dijiong Wu12Guoyan Tian13Hongyan Tong14Jie Jin15Jian Huang16Department of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Department of Haematology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Yiwu, Zhejiang, China; Zhejiang Clinical Medical Research Centre of Haematology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Zhejiang Clinical Medical Research Centre of Haematology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, Taizhou Hospital of Zhejiang Province Affiliated with Wenzhou Medical University, Taizhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The Second Hospital of Jiaxing, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The Affiliated People's Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, College of Medicine, Lishui Hospital, Zhejiang University, Lishui, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, Huzhou Central Hospital, Huzhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The Affiliated Xiaoshan Hospital, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of Haematologist, The First People's Hospital of PingHu, PingHu, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The Affiliated Hospital of Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, ChinaDepartment of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Zhejiang Clinical Medical Research Centre of Haematology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Corresponding author. Department of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, 310003, Zhejiang, China.Department of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Zhejiang Clinical Medical Research Centre of Haematology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Corresponding author. Department of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, 310003, Zhejiang, China.Department of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Zhejiang Clinical Medical Research Centre of Haematology, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; Corresponding author. Department of Haematology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, 310003, Zhejiang, China.Summary: Background: Essential thrombocythemia (ET), a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), has a substantial risk of evolving into post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis (post-ET MF). This study aims to establish a prediction nomogram for early prediction of post-ET MF in ET patients. Methods: The training cohort comprised 558 patients from 8 haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023, while the external validation cohort consisted of 165 patients from 6 additional haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identified independent risk factors and establish a nomogram to predict the post-ET MF free survival. Both bias-corrected area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves and concordance index (C-index) were employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Findings: Multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW), elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and the level of haemoglobin (Hb), a history of smoking and the presence of splenomegaly were independent risk factors for post-ET MF. The C-index displayed of the training and validation cohorts were 0.877 and 0.853. The 5 years, 10 years AUC values in training and external validation cohorts were 0.948, 0.769 and 0.978, 0.804 respectively. Bias-corrected curve is close to the ideal curve and revealed a strong consistency between actual observation and prediction. Interpretation: We developed a nomogram capable of predicting the post-ET MF free survival probability at 5 years and 10 years in ET patients. This tool helps doctors identify patients who need close monitoring and appropriate counselling. Funding: This research was funded by the Key R&D Program of Zhejiang (No. 2022C03137); the Public Technology Application Research Program of Zhejiang, China (No. LGF21H080003); and the Zhejiang Medical Association Clinical Medical Research special fund project (No. 2022ZYC-D09).http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023005552Essential thrombocythemiaPost-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosisPrediction nomogram |
| spellingShingle | Danhong Xiang Xiudi Yang Honglan Qian Li Zhang Yanxia Han Yongcheng Sun Ying Lu Yu Chen Dan Cao Meiwei Hu Lifeng Wang Qinli Tang Dijiong Wu Guoyan Tian Hongyan Tong Jie Jin Jian Huang Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context EClinicalMedicine Essential thrombocythemia Post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis Prediction nomogram |
| title | Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context |
| title_full | Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context |
| title_short | Development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis: a multicentre retrospective studyResearch in context |
| title_sort | development and validation of a model for the early prediction of progression from essential thrombocythemia to post essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis a multicentre retrospective studyresearch in context |
| topic | Essential thrombocythemia Post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis Prediction nomogram |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023005552 |
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