Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US
Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical intervention...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436523000725 |
| _version_ | 1797267213962444800 |
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| author | Sang Woo Park Kevin Messacar Daniel C. Douek Alicen B. Spaulding C. Jessica E. Metcalf Bryan T. Grenfell |
| author_facet | Sang Woo Park Kevin Messacar Daniel C. Douek Alicen B. Spaulding C. Jessica E. Metcalf Bryan T. Grenfell |
| author_sort | Sang Woo Park |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:51:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d8304b757a3a49cd8546a22a0c838893 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-25T01:13:01Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-d8304b757a3a49cd8546a22a0c8388932024-03-10T05:11:34ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652024-03-0146100736Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the USSang Woo Park0Kevin Messacar1Daniel C. Douek2Alicen B. Spaulding3C. Jessica E. Metcalf4Bryan T. Grenfell5Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Corresponding author.Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USAVaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USAVaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USADepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USARecent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436523000725Enterovirus D68infectious disease moelingNon-pharmaceutical interventionCOVID- 19 |
| spellingShingle | Sang Woo Park Kevin Messacar Daniel C. Douek Alicen B. Spaulding C. Jessica E. Metcalf Bryan T. Grenfell Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US Epidemics Enterovirus D68 infectious disease moeling Non-pharmaceutical intervention COVID- 19 |
| title | Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US |
| title_full | Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US |
| title_short | Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US |
| title_sort | predicting the impact of covid 19 non pharmaceutical intervention on short and medium term dynamics of enterovirus d68 in the us |
| topic | Enterovirus D68 infectious disease moeling Non-pharmaceutical intervention COVID- 19 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436523000725 |
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