Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century
Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfir...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2017-07-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/9223/2017/acp-17-9223-2017.pdf |
| _version_ | 1828521984475004928 |
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| author | W. Knorr W. Knorr F. Dentener J.-F. Lamarque L. Jiang L. Jiang A. Arneth |
| author_facet | W. Knorr W. Knorr F. Dentener J.-F. Lamarque L. Jiang L. Jiang A. Arneth |
| author_sort | W. Knorr |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Wildfires pose a
significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due
to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change,
increasing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and human demographic dynamics can lead to
substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity
increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study
re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk,
focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM<sub>2. 5</sub>), combining
an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation
model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and
simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM<sub>2. 5</sub>
emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the
world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a
socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to
anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air
pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of
anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual
pollutant PM<sub>2. 5</sub> levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO)
air quality guidelines for PM<sub>2. 5</sub>. Worst-case future wildfire emissions
are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire
seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in
areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources
that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during
the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM<sub>2. 5</sub> pollution
levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction
of anthropogenic emissions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:59:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d849ac4e473a43e2af10c0a5e10b36d7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T19:59:20Z |
| publishDate | 2017-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-d849ac4e473a43e2af10c0a5e10b36d72022-12-22T00:52:34ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242017-07-01179223923610.5194/acp-17-9223-2017Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st centuryW. Knorr0W. Knorr1F. Dentener2J.-F. Lamarque3L. Jiang4L. Jiang5A. Arneth6Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, SwedenKIT/IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, ItalyNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USANational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USAAsian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, ChinaKIT/IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyWildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM<sub>2. 5</sub>), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM<sub>2. 5</sub> emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM<sub>2. 5</sub> levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM<sub>2. 5</sub>. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM<sub>2. 5</sub> pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/9223/2017/acp-17-9223-2017.pdf |
| spellingShingle | W. Knorr W. Knorr F. Dentener J.-F. Lamarque L. Jiang L. Jiang A. Arneth Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century |
| title_full | Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century |
| title_fullStr | Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century |
| title_short | Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century |
| title_sort | wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century |
| url | https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/9223/2017/acp-17-9223-2017.pdf |
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