Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change

The success of Chilean salmon farming’s early cultivation stages is largely facilitated by access to high-quality water, which is provisioned by watersheds dominated by native forests and defined by high precipitation levels. In recent decades, human activities have increasingly affected both attrib...

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Main Authors: Jorge León-Muñoz, Rodrigo Aguayo, Doris Soto, Ruben Avendaño-Herrera, Jorge Nimptsch, Stefan Wolfl, Jeanne Simon, Cristian Echeverría, Mauricio Aguayo, Cesar Salazar, Oscar Garay, Sage Fox
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2023-01-01
Series:Climate Risk Management
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209632300030X
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author Jorge León-Muñoz
Rodrigo Aguayo
Doris Soto
Ruben Avendaño-Herrera
Jorge Nimptsch
Stefan Wolfl
Jeanne Simon
Cristian Echeverría
Mauricio Aguayo
Cesar Salazar
Oscar Garay
Sage Fox
author_facet Jorge León-Muñoz
Rodrigo Aguayo
Doris Soto
Ruben Avendaño-Herrera
Jorge Nimptsch
Stefan Wolfl
Jeanne Simon
Cristian Echeverría
Mauricio Aguayo
Cesar Salazar
Oscar Garay
Sage Fox
author_sort Jorge León-Muñoz
collection DOAJ
description The success of Chilean salmon farming’s early cultivation stages is largely facilitated by access to high-quality water, which is provisioned by watersheds dominated by native forests and defined by high precipitation levels. In recent decades, human activities have increasingly affected both attributes. This study analyzed the risk of climate change in 123 watersheds that supply water to land-based salmon farms in south-central Chile (36.5−43°S). The risk was calculated based on exposure (fingerling and smolt production), sensitivity (land cover maps for three time periods), and hazard indicators (four climate change indicators). The results show a disturbing reality: under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), more than 50% of the current fingerling and smolts production would be located in high or very high-risk areas. These projections are the result of both a drier and warmer climate as well as the continued processes of deforestation and fragmentation of native forests, a spatio-temporal combination which could limit the availability and quality of the water needed for optimal aquaculture production. The risk analysis suggests that landscape configuration may be a potential alternative to mitigate the consequences of climate change on Chilean salmon farming. This is particularly important in areas such as south-central Chile, where the current watershed management and/or conservation strategies do not ensure landscapes resilient to projected hydroclimatic changes.
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spelling doaj.art-d89062add5b0447c8c658db9b8a15efe2023-05-28T04:08:58ZengElsevierClimate Risk Management2212-09632023-01-0140100504Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate changeJorge León-Muñoz0Rodrigo Aguayo1Doris Soto2Ruben Avendaño-Herrera3Jorge Nimptsch4Stefan Wolfl5Jeanne Simon6Cristian Echeverría7Mauricio Aguayo8Cesar Salazar9Oscar Garay10Sage Fox11Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile; Centro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Corresponding author at: Departamento de Química Ambiental, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile.Facultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Centro EULA-Chile, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileCentro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, ChileCentro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Universidad Andrés Bello, Laboratorio de Patología de Organismos Acuáticos y Biotecnología Acuícola, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Viña del Mar, Chile; Centro de Investigación Marina Quintay (CIMARQ), Universidad Andrés Bello, Quintay, ChileInstituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, ChileInstituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, ChileCentro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Departamento de Administración Pública y Ciencia Política, Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileLaboratorio de ecología de paisaje, Departamento de Manejo de Bosques y Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileFacultad de Ciencias Ambientales, Centro EULA-Chile, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileCentro Interdisciplinario para la Investigación Acuícola (INCAR), Concepción, Chile; Departmento de Gestión Empresarial, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales, Centro de Estudios de Ñuble (CEÑ), Universidad del Bío-Bío, Chillán, Chile; Research Nucleus on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics (NENRE)-EfD, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, ChileAquaculture Consultant, Puerto Varas, ChileOpen Study/Research Award Grantee, Fulbright U.S. Student Program, ChileThe success of Chilean salmon farming’s early cultivation stages is largely facilitated by access to high-quality water, which is provisioned by watersheds dominated by native forests and defined by high precipitation levels. In recent decades, human activities have increasingly affected both attributes. This study analyzed the risk of climate change in 123 watersheds that supply water to land-based salmon farms in south-central Chile (36.5−43°S). The risk was calculated based on exposure (fingerling and smolt production), sensitivity (land cover maps for three time periods), and hazard indicators (four climate change indicators). The results show a disturbing reality: under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), more than 50% of the current fingerling and smolts production would be located in high or very high-risk areas. These projections are the result of both a drier and warmer climate as well as the continued processes of deforestation and fragmentation of native forests, a spatio-temporal combination which could limit the availability and quality of the water needed for optimal aquaculture production. The risk analysis suggests that landscape configuration may be a potential alternative to mitigate the consequences of climate change on Chilean salmon farming. This is particularly important in areas such as south-central Chile, where the current watershed management and/or conservation strategies do not ensure landscapes resilient to projected hydroclimatic changes.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209632300030XClimate changeLand cover changeWatershedsSalmon farmingRisk analysisChile
spellingShingle Jorge León-Muñoz
Rodrigo Aguayo
Doris Soto
Ruben Avendaño-Herrera
Jorge Nimptsch
Stefan Wolfl
Jeanne Simon
Cristian Echeverría
Mauricio Aguayo
Cesar Salazar
Oscar Garay
Sage Fox
Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
Climate Risk Management
Climate change
Land cover change
Watersheds
Salmon farming
Risk analysis
Chile
title Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
title_full Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
title_fullStr Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
title_full_unstemmed Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
title_short Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
title_sort landscape dependency of land based salmon farming under climate change
topic Climate change
Land cover change
Watersheds
Salmon farming
Risk analysis
Chile
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209632300030X
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