Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes
The Prairie region of Canada is an agriculture-intensive area and is strategic to Canada's food security. Moisture deficit due to extreme temperatures leading to high evapotranspiration can have significant impacts on water availability, resulting in poor crop yield. The primary objective of th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-03-01
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| Series: | Results in Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123024001324 |
| _version_ | 1797247771043954688 |
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| author | Alaba Boluwade Paul Sheridan Aitazaz A. Farooque |
| author_facet | Alaba Boluwade Paul Sheridan Aitazaz A. Farooque |
| author_sort | Alaba Boluwade |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Prairie region of Canada is an agriculture-intensive area and is strategic to Canada's food security. Moisture deficit due to extreme temperatures leading to high evapotranspiration can have significant impacts on water availability, resulting in poor crop yield. The primary objective of this study is to quantify the spatial structure and dependency of extreme temperatures by employing Max-Stable Process (MSP) modeling on daily annual maximum temperature data spanning 1970–2020. The spatial trend surface of the marginal parameters of the Spatial Generalized Extreme Value (SGEV) shows that geographical coordinates, topography due to the Rocky Mountains, and proximity (Euclidean distance) to Hudson Bay are important covariates in capturing the spatial trend of extreme temperatures. Furthermore, through the SGEV, important products such as the point-wise return periods and levels were derived using the best selected model as determined by Takeuchi's information criteria. The return levels show that the southern portion of the Canadian Prairies shows a consistent increase in extreme temperature for all the return periods. The results show that all the return periods mentioned above have extreme temperatures exceeding 37 °C in the southern portion of the Canadian Prairies. An unconditional simulation using the fitted MSP model provided various realizations of temperature extremes. The results from this study provide important insights into extreme temperatures in this important region, where water resources management is crucial. This study will be beneficial to the hydrologists, water resource specialists, climate change scientists and policy makers involved in the monitoring of extreme events in the Canadian Prairies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T18:36:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d8b45381b4454e2b8d3117d9f19df14c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2590-1230 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T20:03:59Z |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-d8b45381b4454e2b8d3117d9f19df14c2024-03-24T07:01:01ZengElsevierResults in Engineering2590-12302024-03-0121101879Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processesAlaba Boluwade0Paul Sheridan1Aitazaz A. Farooque2School of Climate Change & Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Change & Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St Peters Bay, PE, Canada; Corresponding author. School of Climate Change & Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.School of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, CanadaSchool of Climate Change & Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Change & Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St Peters Bay, PE, Canada; Faculty of Sustainable Desing Engineering, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, CanadaThe Prairie region of Canada is an agriculture-intensive area and is strategic to Canada's food security. Moisture deficit due to extreme temperatures leading to high evapotranspiration can have significant impacts on water availability, resulting in poor crop yield. The primary objective of this study is to quantify the spatial structure and dependency of extreme temperatures by employing Max-Stable Process (MSP) modeling on daily annual maximum temperature data spanning 1970–2020. The spatial trend surface of the marginal parameters of the Spatial Generalized Extreme Value (SGEV) shows that geographical coordinates, topography due to the Rocky Mountains, and proximity (Euclidean distance) to Hudson Bay are important covariates in capturing the spatial trend of extreme temperatures. Furthermore, through the SGEV, important products such as the point-wise return periods and levels were derived using the best selected model as determined by Takeuchi's information criteria. The return levels show that the southern portion of the Canadian Prairies shows a consistent increase in extreme temperature for all the return periods. The results show that all the return periods mentioned above have extreme temperatures exceeding 37 °C in the southern portion of the Canadian Prairies. An unconditional simulation using the fitted MSP model provided various realizations of temperature extremes. The results from this study provide important insights into extreme temperatures in this important region, where water resources management is crucial. This study will be beneficial to the hydrologists, water resource specialists, climate change scientists and policy makers involved in the monitoring of extreme events in the Canadian Prairies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123024001324Canadian prairiesWater resourcesGeneralized extreme valueExtreme temperatureMax-stable processDrought |
| spellingShingle | Alaba Boluwade Paul Sheridan Aitazaz A. Farooque Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes Results in Engineering Canadian prairies Water resources Generalized extreme value Extreme temperature Max-stable process Drought |
| title | Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes |
| title_full | Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes |
| title_fullStr | Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes |
| title_short | Spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the Canadian Prairies using max-stable processes |
| title_sort | spatial modeling of extreme temperature in the canadian prairies using max stable processes |
| topic | Canadian prairies Water resources Generalized extreme value Extreme temperature Max-stable process Drought |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123024001324 |
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