Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico
Enhancing the comprehension of alterations in land use holds paramount importance for water management in semi-arid regions due to its effects on hydrology and agricultural economics. Allowing agricultural land to lie fallow has emerged as a technique to decrease water use. This research employs the...
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MDPI AG
2024-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/1/181 |
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| author | Gholamreza Eslamifar Hamid Balali Alexander Fernald |
| author_facet | Gholamreza Eslamifar Hamid Balali Alexander Fernald |
| author_sort | Gholamreza Eslamifar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Enhancing the comprehension of alterations in land use holds paramount importance for water management in semi-arid regions due to its effects on hydrology and agricultural economics. Allowing agricultural land to lie fallow has emerged as a technique to decrease water use. This research employs the methodology of system dynamics modeling to evaluate the hydrologic and agricultural economic ramifications of employing the fallowing strategy, which aims to preserve water resources in interconnected socio-hydrologic systems. This strategy is explored across three different crops, focusing on the Mesilla–Rincon Valley (MRV) in southern New Mexico. The study’s timeline spans from 2022 to 2050 with historical background from 1969 and encompasses various dimensions, including water availability, land utilization, and agricultural economics. Three types of crops were selected for the fallowing strategy, including cotton, alfalfa/hay, and chile. For each crop, 2500 acres of it would be designated for fallowing separately in two subsequent years, allowing the land to be cultivated in the third year and recurring such pattern. Simulation findings across scenarios (GFDL, UKMO, and NCAR) indicate that water withdrawals for all crops decreased significantly, ranging from approximately 2.69% to 4.37%. Similarly, agriculture income experienced reductions, varying from around 1.53% to 2.26%. Also, surface water and groundwater withdrawals are represented as percentages. The data illustrate significant reductions in water withdrawals across all scenarios. For instance, in the GFDL scenario, surface water withdrawal decreased by approximately 1.85% for cotton, 2.56% for alfalfa/hay, and 1.58% for chile. Similarly, groundwater withdrawals saw substantial reductions, such as 14.93% for cotton, 20.44% for alfalfa/hay, and 12.62% for chile. These numbers emphasize the urgent need for sustainable water management practices to address the challenges posed by reduced water availability. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:55:43Z |
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| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T14:55:43Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-d8bc9060a4cf436e8b7ccff07dbaad602024-01-10T15:11:58ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412024-01-0116118110.3390/w16010181Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New MexicoGholamreza Eslamifar0Hamid Balali1Alexander Fernald2New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USANew Mexico Water Resources Research Institute, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USANew Mexico Water Resources Research Institute, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USAEnhancing the comprehension of alterations in land use holds paramount importance for water management in semi-arid regions due to its effects on hydrology and agricultural economics. Allowing agricultural land to lie fallow has emerged as a technique to decrease water use. This research employs the methodology of system dynamics modeling to evaluate the hydrologic and agricultural economic ramifications of employing the fallowing strategy, which aims to preserve water resources in interconnected socio-hydrologic systems. This strategy is explored across three different crops, focusing on the Mesilla–Rincon Valley (MRV) in southern New Mexico. The study’s timeline spans from 2022 to 2050 with historical background from 1969 and encompasses various dimensions, including water availability, land utilization, and agricultural economics. Three types of crops were selected for the fallowing strategy, including cotton, alfalfa/hay, and chile. For each crop, 2500 acres of it would be designated for fallowing separately in two subsequent years, allowing the land to be cultivated in the third year and recurring such pattern. Simulation findings across scenarios (GFDL, UKMO, and NCAR) indicate that water withdrawals for all crops decreased significantly, ranging from approximately 2.69% to 4.37%. Similarly, agriculture income experienced reductions, varying from around 1.53% to 2.26%. Also, surface water and groundwater withdrawals are represented as percentages. The data illustrate significant reductions in water withdrawals across all scenarios. For instance, in the GFDL scenario, surface water withdrawal decreased by approximately 1.85% for cotton, 2.56% for alfalfa/hay, and 1.58% for chile. Similarly, groundwater withdrawals saw substantial reductions, such as 14.93% for cotton, 20.44% for alfalfa/hay, and 12.62% for chile. These numbers emphasize the urgent need for sustainable water management practices to address the challenges posed by reduced water availability.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/1/181fallowing strategyhydro-economical modelsystem dynamicsscenario analysisMesilla–Rincon Valleywater withdrawal |
| spellingShingle | Gholamreza Eslamifar Hamid Balali Alexander Fernald Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico Water fallowing strategy hydro-economical model system dynamics scenario analysis Mesilla–Rincon Valley water withdrawal |
| title | Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico |
| title_full | Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico |
| title_fullStr | Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico |
| title_short | Fallowing Strategy and Its Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Withdrawal, and Agricultural Economics: A System Dynamics Approach in Southern New Mexico |
| title_sort | fallowing strategy and its impact on surface water and groundwater withdrawal and agricultural economics a system dynamics approach in southern new mexico |
| topic | fallowing strategy hydro-economical model system dynamics scenario analysis Mesilla–Rincon Valley water withdrawal |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/1/181 |
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