Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis
Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SAR...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2024-06-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000319 |
| _version_ | 1827287960328863744 |
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| author | Salihu S. Musa Shi Zhao Ismail Abdulrashid Sania Qureshi Andrés Colubri Daihai He |
| author_facet | Salihu S. Musa Shi Zhao Ismail Abdulrashid Sania Qureshi Andrés Colubri Daihai He |
| author_sort | Salihu S. Musa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, particularly variolation, from non-pharmaceutical intervention (facial masking and social distance), demography, and disease mortality in mainland China. The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to (1) higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and (2) enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections (high transmissibility). These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022. Our study, therefore, can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts. Thus, we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals. However, further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T11:20:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d8ed57188965401988b0e1d894f101f8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T11:20:55Z |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-d8ed57188965401988b0e1d894f101f82024-04-11T04:41:44ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272024-06-0192601617Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysisSalihu S. Musa0Shi Zhao1Ismail Abdulrashid2Sania Qureshi3Andrés Colubri4Daihai He5Department of Genomics and Computational Biology, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA, 01605, USA; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China; Department of Mathematics, Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Kano, NigeriaSchool of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, 300070, ChinaSchool of Finance and Operations Management, The University of Tulsa, 800 South Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK, 74104, USADepartment of Basic Sciences and Related Studies, Mehran University of Engineering and Tech., Jamshoro, Pakistan; Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Lebanese American University, Beirut, LebanonDepartment of Genomics and Computational Biology, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA, 01605, USA; Corresponding author. Department of Genomics and Computational Biology, University of Massachusetts, Medical School, MA, 01605, USA.Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China; Corresponding author. Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, particularly variolation, from non-pharmaceutical intervention (facial masking and social distance), demography, and disease mortality in mainland China. The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to (1) higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and (2) enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections (high transmissibility). These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022. Our study, therefore, can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts. Thus, we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals. However, further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000319SARS-CoV-2EpidemicEpidemiological modelingReproduction numberVariolation |
| spellingShingle | Salihu S. Musa Shi Zhao Ismail Abdulrashid Sania Qureshi Andrés Colubri Daihai He Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis Infectious Disease Modelling SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Epidemiological modeling Reproduction number Variolation |
| title | Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis |
| title_full | Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis |
| title_short | Evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2022 with variolation effects: a modeling analysis |
| title_sort | evaluating the spike in the symptomatic proportion of sars cov 2 in china in 2022 with variolation effects a modeling analysis |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Epidemiological modeling Reproduction number Variolation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000319 |
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