Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient
Almost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Energies |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18/5827 |
| _version_ | 1797519451326775296 |
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| author | Mark Howells Brent Boehlert Pablo César Benitez |
| author_facet | Mark Howells Brent Boehlert Pablo César Benitez |
| author_sort | Mark Howells |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Almost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, emissions will be reduced by 33% per capita by 2030. If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost if suitable sources of climate financing are in place. The NDC plots a positive future. However, much of Zimbabwe’s NDC mitigation center on hydropower generation and other measures that are dangerously vulnerable to climate change. Should the climate change in accordance with recent projections, these investments will be at risk, severely constraining electricity supply and causing high degrees of economic damage. This paper uses the Open-Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) to consider two adaptation pathways that address this vulnerability. In the first, the country turns to a historically accessible option, namely the deployment of coal. In so doing, the electrical system is made more resilient, but emissions ramp up. The second pathway ‘climate proofs’ the power sector by boosting solar and wind capacity, using hydropower to provide balance for these new renewable resources, and introducing significant energy efficiency measures. This second pathway would require a set of extra accompanying investments and changes to the power market rules, but allows for both system resilience and NDC targets to be met. The paper shows that Zimbabwe’s low emissions growth can be made resilient, and while this path promises strong benefits, it also requires strong commitment and political will. From this paper insights are drawn and requirements for future analysis are made. Two critical insights are that: (i) NDCs that focus on mitigation should include resilience in their design. If they do not, they can introduce deep vulnerability; (ii) a departure from historical electricity market structures appears to hold potential for strong environmental, cost and reliability gains. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:42:58Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d9016f3c2d3d4dbfb5428f11e88f811d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1996-1073 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T07:42:58Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energies |
| spelling | doaj.art-d9016f3c2d3d4dbfb5428f11e88f811d2023-11-22T12:53:41ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-09-011418582710.3390/en14185827Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become ResilientMark Howells0Brent Boehlert1Pablo César Benitez2STEER Centre, Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UKIndustrial Economics, Incorporated, Cambridge, MA 02140, USAWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC 20433, USAAlmost all countries have committed to develop Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to reduce GHG emissions. They determine the level of GHG mitigation that, as a nation, they will commit to reducing. Zimbabwe has ambitious and laudable GHG mitigation targets. Compared to a coal-based future, emissions will be reduced by 33% per capita by 2030. If historical climate conditions continue, it can do this at low or negative cost if suitable sources of climate financing are in place. The NDC plots a positive future. However, much of Zimbabwe’s NDC mitigation center on hydropower generation and other measures that are dangerously vulnerable to climate change. Should the climate change in accordance with recent projections, these investments will be at risk, severely constraining electricity supply and causing high degrees of economic damage. This paper uses the Open-Source energy Modelling SYStem (OSeMOSYS) to consider two adaptation pathways that address this vulnerability. In the first, the country turns to a historically accessible option, namely the deployment of coal. In so doing, the electrical system is made more resilient, but emissions ramp up. The second pathway ‘climate proofs’ the power sector by boosting solar and wind capacity, using hydropower to provide balance for these new renewable resources, and introducing significant energy efficiency measures. This second pathway would require a set of extra accompanying investments and changes to the power market rules, but allows for both system resilience and NDC targets to be met. The paper shows that Zimbabwe’s low emissions growth can be made resilient, and while this path promises strong benefits, it also requires strong commitment and political will. From this paper insights are drawn and requirements for future analysis are made. Two critical insights are that: (i) NDCs that focus on mitigation should include resilience in their design. If they do not, they can introduce deep vulnerability; (ii) a departure from historical electricity market structures appears to hold potential for strong environmental, cost and reliability gains.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18/5827energy modellingclimate changeclimate resilienceOSeMOSYSintegrated assessment modellingNationally Determined Contributions (NDC) |
| spellingShingle | Mark Howells Brent Boehlert Pablo César Benitez Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient Energies energy modelling climate change climate resilience OSeMOSYS integrated assessment modelling Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) |
| title | Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient |
| title_full | Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient |
| title_fullStr | Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient |
| title_short | Potential Climate Change Risks to Meeting Zimbabwe’s NDC Goals and How to Become Resilient |
| title_sort | potential climate change risks to meeting zimbabwe s ndc goals and how to become resilient |
| topic | energy modelling climate change climate resilience OSeMOSYS integrated assessment modelling Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18/5827 |
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