The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory
Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on predict...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13955 |
| _version_ | 1797767018226647040 |
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| author | Abigail S. L. Lewis Christine R. Rollinson Andrew J. Allyn Jaime Ashander Stephanie Brodie Cole B. Brookson Elyssa Collins Michael C. Dietze Amanda S. Gallinat Noel Juvigny‐Khenafou Gerbrand Koren Daniel J. McGlinn Hassan Moustahfid Jody A. Peters Nicholas R. Record Caleb J. Robbins Jonathan Tonkin Glenda M. Wardle |
| author_facet | Abigail S. L. Lewis Christine R. Rollinson Andrew J. Allyn Jaime Ashander Stephanie Brodie Cole B. Brookson Elyssa Collins Michael C. Dietze Amanda S. Gallinat Noel Juvigny‐Khenafou Gerbrand Koren Daniel J. McGlinn Hassan Moustahfid Jody A. Peters Nicholas R. Record Caleb J. Robbins Jonathan Tonkin Glenda M. Wardle |
| author_sort | Abigail S. L. Lewis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:32:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d9051fed63e7499bb97b4e4fd3b061fb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-210X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T20:32:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-d9051fed63e7499bb97b4e4fd3b061fb2023-08-01T18:55:49ZengWileyMethods in Ecology and Evolution2041-210X2023-03-0114374675610.1111/2041-210X.13955The power of forecasts to advance ecological theoryAbigail S. L. Lewis0Christine R. Rollinson1Andrew J. Allyn2Jaime Ashander3Stephanie Brodie4Cole B. Brookson5Elyssa Collins6Michael C. Dietze7Amanda S. Gallinat8Noel Juvigny‐Khenafou9Gerbrand Koren10Daniel J. McGlinn11Hassan Moustahfid12Jody A. Peters13Nicholas R. Record14Caleb J. Robbins15Jonathan Tonkin16Glenda M. Wardle17Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA USACenter for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum Lisle IL USAGulf of Maine Research Institute Portland ME USAU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Patuxent Research Refuge Laurel MD USAInstitute of Marine Science University of California Santa Cruz Monterey CA USADepartment of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton AB CanadaCenter for Geospatial Analytics North Carolina State University Raleigh NC USADepartment of Earth & Environment Boston University Boston MA United StatesUniversity of Wisconsin‐Milwaukee Milwaukee WI USAiES—Institute for Environmental Sciences University of Koblenz‐Landau Landau i. d. Pfalz GermanyCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University Utrecht The NetherlandsDepartment of Biology College of Charleston Charleston SC USANOAA, US Integrated Ocean Observing System Silver Spring MD USAUniversity of Notre Dame Notre Dame IN USABigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences Boothbay ME USADepartment of Biology, Center for Reservoir and Aquatic Systems Research Baylor University Waco TX USASchool of Biological Sciences University of Canterbury Christchurch New ZealandSchool of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Sydney Sydney New South Wales AustraliaAbstract Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13955ecological forecastecological theoryforecast cycleforecast synthesishypothesis testingmodelling |
| spellingShingle | Abigail S. L. Lewis Christine R. Rollinson Andrew J. Allyn Jaime Ashander Stephanie Brodie Cole B. Brookson Elyssa Collins Michael C. Dietze Amanda S. Gallinat Noel Juvigny‐Khenafou Gerbrand Koren Daniel J. McGlinn Hassan Moustahfid Jody A. Peters Nicholas R. Record Caleb J. Robbins Jonathan Tonkin Glenda M. Wardle The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory Methods in Ecology and Evolution ecological forecast ecological theory forecast cycle forecast synthesis hypothesis testing modelling |
| title | The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory |
| title_full | The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory |
| title_fullStr | The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory |
| title_full_unstemmed | The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory |
| title_short | The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory |
| title_sort | power of forecasts to advance ecological theory |
| topic | ecological forecast ecological theory forecast cycle forecast synthesis hypothesis testing modelling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13955 |
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