Tropical Cyclone Frequency
Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on t...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002275 |
| _version_ | 1818015339789680640 |
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| author | Adam H. Sobel Allison A. Wing Suzana J. Camargo Christina M. Patricola Gabriel A. Vecchi Chia‐Ying Lee Michael K. Tippett |
| author_facet | Adam H. Sobel Allison A. Wing Suzana J. Camargo Christina M. Patricola Gabriel A. Vecchi Chia‐Ying Lee Michael K. Tippett |
| author_sort | Adam H. Sobel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:56:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d939c9d484eb406cb27c8e3696330856 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T06:56:32Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-d939c9d484eb406cb27c8e36963308562022-12-22T02:06:53ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772021-12-01912n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002275Tropical Cyclone FrequencyAdam H. Sobel0Allison A. Wing1Suzana J. Camargo2Christina M. Patricola3Gabriel A. Vecchi4Chia‐Ying Lee5Michael K. Tippett6Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York NY USADepartment of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science Florida State University Tallahassee FL USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USADepartment of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USADepartment of Geosciences Princeton University Princeton NJ USALamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USADepartment of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Columbia University New York NY USAAbstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002275tropical cyclonesclimate changetropical cyclone frequencyextreme weather |
| spellingShingle | Adam H. Sobel Allison A. Wing Suzana J. Camargo Christina M. Patricola Gabriel A. Vecchi Chia‐Ying Lee Michael K. Tippett Tropical Cyclone Frequency Earth's Future tropical cyclones climate change tropical cyclone frequency extreme weather |
| title | Tropical Cyclone Frequency |
| title_full | Tropical Cyclone Frequency |
| title_fullStr | Tropical Cyclone Frequency |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical Cyclone Frequency |
| title_short | Tropical Cyclone Frequency |
| title_sort | tropical cyclone frequency |
| topic | tropical cyclones climate change tropical cyclone frequency extreme weather |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002275 |
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