Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index
The trend of population growth and the consequent need to increase agricultural production in order to provide for the necessary food is critical topic nowadays. To account for the risks and damage caused by changes in weather and climate constrains, it is important to know how these changes affect...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423004079 |
| _version_ | 1797637693628219392 |
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| author | Mohammad Khaledi-Alamdari Abolfazl Majnooni-Heris Ahmad Fakheri-Fard Ana Russo |
| author_facet | Mohammad Khaledi-Alamdari Abolfazl Majnooni-Heris Ahmad Fakheri-Fard Ana Russo |
| author_sort | Mohammad Khaledi-Alamdari |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The trend of population growth and the consequent need to increase agricultural production in order to provide for the necessary food is critical topic nowadays. To account for the risks and damage caused by changes in weather and climate constrains, it is important to know how these changes affect the agricultural productivity. Wheat is the world's most widely grown crop and is directly related to worldwide food security issues. As a result, it has always been of interest to researchers as a strategic crop. In this study, the correlation of the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index in six growing periods of rainfed wheat with its yield was examined and found that the highest correlation is seen over the entire growing season. Based on statistical distributions and copula functions, the sensitivity and rainfed wheat yield to the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index was examined. Clayton Copula was selected based on AIC and RMSE evaluation indices. The probability of having crop losses is around 50%, in general. The results showed that the yield risk of rainfed wheat in the Tabriz region drops to 46% under low climatic risk conditions and reaches to 98% under medium and high climate risk conditions. The results allow farmers and stakeholders to better plan and manage food security by knowing the changes in rainfed wheat yield depending on weather conditions. By using different options under different conditions such as wet events, it is also possible to work towards higher yield amounts of rainfed wheat and other rainfed crops. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:52:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d958d67fbb9a47b2a483d6c57afa1030 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T12:52:02Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-d958d67fbb9a47b2a483d6c57afa10302023-11-04T04:17:20ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832023-11-01289108542Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction indexMohammad Khaledi-Alamdari0Abolfazl Majnooni-Heris1Ahmad Fakheri-Fard2Ana Russo3Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 5166614766, IranDept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 5166614766, Iran; Corresponding authors.Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz 5166614766, IranUniversidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Instituto Dom Luíz (IDL), 1749–016 Lisboa, Portugal; Corresponding authors.The trend of population growth and the consequent need to increase agricultural production in order to provide for the necessary food is critical topic nowadays. To account for the risks and damage caused by changes in weather and climate constrains, it is important to know how these changes affect the agricultural productivity. Wheat is the world's most widely grown crop and is directly related to worldwide food security issues. As a result, it has always been of interest to researchers as a strategic crop. In this study, the correlation of the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index in six growing periods of rainfed wheat with its yield was examined and found that the highest correlation is seen over the entire growing season. Based on statistical distributions and copula functions, the sensitivity and rainfed wheat yield to the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index was examined. Clayton Copula was selected based on AIC and RMSE evaluation indices. The probability of having crop losses is around 50%, in general. The results showed that the yield risk of rainfed wheat in the Tabriz region drops to 46% under low climatic risk conditions and reaches to 98% under medium and high climate risk conditions. The results allow farmers and stakeholders to better plan and manage food security by knowing the changes in rainfed wheat yield depending on weather conditions. By using different options under different conditions such as wet events, it is also possible to work towards higher yield amounts of rainfed wheat and other rainfed crops.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423004079Crop yieldRisk analysisWRSIYield risk |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Khaledi-Alamdari Abolfazl Majnooni-Heris Ahmad Fakheri-Fard Ana Russo Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index Agricultural Water Management Crop yield Risk analysis WRSI Yield risk |
| title | Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index |
| title_full | Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index |
| title_short | Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index |
| title_sort | probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index |
| topic | Crop yield Risk analysis WRSI Yield risk |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423004079 |
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