Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021
The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of public debt sustainability on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 and establish a new optimal debt level that does not affect Peru's economic growth. The general method used to determine this effect was the hypothetical...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Growing Science
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Decision Science Letters |
| Online Access: | http://www.growingscience.com/dsl/Vol12/dsl_2022_48.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797865913953812480 |
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| author | Lia Sheyla Quispe-Adauto Sheyla Vilcas-Mamani Wagner Vicente-Ramos |
| author_facet | Lia Sheyla Quispe-Adauto Sheyla Vilcas-Mamani Wagner Vicente-Ramos |
| author_sort | Lia Sheyla Quispe-Adauto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of public debt sustainability on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 and establish a new optimal debt level that does not affect Peru's economic growth. The general method used to determine this effect was the hypothetical deductive method with a non-experimental and longitudinal trend design, because the data to be analyzed are variations that have occurred over time; the VAR (vector autoregressive) model was used as a specific method, because the evidence was insufficient to consider the simultaneity between the reactions of the variables to propose an SVAR model. Data were collected from economic portals such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), as well as the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). The estimated sample size was 88 observations representing all quarters from 2000 to 2021. As a result of the econometric regression, the impact of the level of public debt on economic growth is positive, since a one-unit increase in the percentage of public debt will increase the variation of GDP by almost 1.1%. Regarding the debt level forecast and according to the projection made, it was determined that the new debt level that does not affect the sustainability of public finances or the long-term economic growth of the Peruvian economy should be 38% of GDP. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:16:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d9753d3cddbd4232afe955be8cb04232 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1929-5804 1929-5812 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:16:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | Growing Science |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Decision Science Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-d9753d3cddbd4232afe955be8cb042322023-03-22T08:44:43ZengGrowing ScienceDecision Science Letters1929-58041929-58122023-01-0112243144010.5267/j.dsl.2022.12.001Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021Lia Sheyla Quispe-AdautoSheyla Vilcas-Mamani Wagner Vicente-Ramos The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of public debt sustainability on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 and establish a new optimal debt level that does not affect Peru's economic growth. The general method used to determine this effect was the hypothetical deductive method with a non-experimental and longitudinal trend design, because the data to be analyzed are variations that have occurred over time; the VAR (vector autoregressive) model was used as a specific method, because the evidence was insufficient to consider the simultaneity between the reactions of the variables to propose an SVAR model. Data were collected from economic portals such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), as well as the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). The estimated sample size was 88 observations representing all quarters from 2000 to 2021. As a result of the econometric regression, the impact of the level of public debt on economic growth is positive, since a one-unit increase in the percentage of public debt will increase the variation of GDP by almost 1.1%. Regarding the debt level forecast and according to the projection made, it was determined that the new debt level that does not affect the sustainability of public finances or the long-term economic growth of the Peruvian economy should be 38% of GDP.http://www.growingscience.com/dsl/Vol12/dsl_2022_48.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Lia Sheyla Quispe-Adauto Sheyla Vilcas-Mamani Wagner Vicente-Ramos Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 Decision Science Letters |
| title | Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 |
| title_full | Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 |
| title_fullStr | Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 |
| title_short | Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 |
| title_sort | sustainability of the peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000 2021 |
| url | http://www.growingscience.com/dsl/Vol12/dsl_2022_48.pdf |
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