A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China
Abstract Background China’s Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models. Methods A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and hu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Parasites & Vectors |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13071-019-3295-0 |
| _version_ | 1818476048617046016 |
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| author | Xia Wang Sanyi Tang Jianhong Wu Yanni Xiao Robert A. Cheke |
| author_facet | Xia Wang Sanyi Tang Jianhong Wu Yanni Xiao Robert A. Cheke |
| author_sort | Xia Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background China’s Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models. Methods A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever. Results With temperature in the range of 25–30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall. Conclusions Evaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T09:20:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d97c9baa3c44400294c3788e5734ff35 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1756-3305 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T09:20:39Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Parasites & Vectors |
| spelling | doaj.art-d97c9baa3c44400294c3788e5734ff352022-12-22T01:54:42ZengBMCParasites & Vectors1756-33052019-01-0112111010.1186/s13071-019-3295-0A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, ChinaXia Wang0Sanyi Tang1Jianhong Wu2Yanni Xiao3Robert A. Cheke4School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal UniversityCentre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityNatural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at MedwayAbstract Background China’s Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models. Methods A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever. Results With temperature in the range of 25–30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall. Conclusions Evaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13071-019-3295-0DengueAedesPrecipitationTemperatureMulti-scale modelShort-term forecast |
| spellingShingle | Xia Wang Sanyi Tang Jianhong Wu Yanni Xiao Robert A. Cheke A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China Parasites & Vectors Dengue Aedes Precipitation Temperature Multi-scale model Short-term forecast |
| title | A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China |
| title_full | A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China |
| title_fullStr | A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China |
| title_short | A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China |
| title_sort | combination of climatic conditions determines major within season dengue outbreaks in guangdong province china |
| topic | Dengue Aedes Precipitation Temperature Multi-scale model Short-term forecast |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13071-019-3295-0 |
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