Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza (HPAI) cause high mortality in avian populations worldwide. When spread from avian reservoirs to humans, HPAI infections cause mortality in about 50% of human infections. Cases of human-to-human transmission of HPAI are relatively rare, and h...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1942570 |
| _version_ | 1819320112971251712 |
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| author | Amita Tripathi Harish Chandra Dhakal Khagendra Adhikari Ramesh Chandra Timsina Lindi M. Wahl |
| author_facet | Amita Tripathi Harish Chandra Dhakal Khagendra Adhikari Ramesh Chandra Timsina Lindi M. Wahl |
| author_sort | Amita Tripathi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Outbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza (HPAI) cause high mortality in avian populations worldwide. When spread from avian reservoirs to humans, HPAI infections cause mortality in about 50% of human infections. Cases of human-to-human transmission of HPAI are relatively rare, and have, to date, only been reported in situations of close contact. These transmissions have resulted in isolated clusters of human HPAI infections, but have not yet caused a pandemic. Given the large number of human H5N1 HPAI infections to date, none of which has resulted in a pandemic, we estimate an upper bound on the probability of H5N1 pandemic emergence. We use this estimate to provide the likelihood of observing such a pandemic over the next decade. We then develop a more accurate parameter-based estimate of the emergence probability and predict the likelihood that, through rare mutations, an H5N1 influenza pandemic will emerge over the same time span. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T11:14:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d98b2573143a47d2a8e0e6ef38729ed9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1751-3758 1751-3766 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T11:14:25Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Biological Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-d98b2573143a47d2a8e0e6ef38729ed92022-12-21T16:58:26ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Biological Dynamics1751-37581751-37662021-01-0115132734110.1080/17513758.2021.19425701942570Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenzaAmita Tripathi0Harish Chandra Dhakal1Khagendra Adhikari2Ramesh Chandra Timsina3Lindi M. Wahl4Banaras Hindu UniversityBirendra Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan UniversityAmrit Science Campus, Tribhuvan UniversityPatan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan UniversityWestern UniversityOutbreaks of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza (HPAI) cause high mortality in avian populations worldwide. When spread from avian reservoirs to humans, HPAI infections cause mortality in about 50% of human infections. Cases of human-to-human transmission of HPAI are relatively rare, and have, to date, only been reported in situations of close contact. These transmissions have resulted in isolated clusters of human HPAI infections, but have not yet caused a pandemic. Given the large number of human H5N1 HPAI infections to date, none of which has resulted in a pandemic, we estimate an upper bound on the probability of H5N1 pandemic emergence. We use this estimate to provide the likelihood of observing such a pandemic over the next decade. We then develop a more accurate parameter-based estimate of the emergence probability and predict the likelihood that, through rare mutations, an H5N1 influenza pandemic will emerge over the same time span.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1942570mathematical epidemiologyavian influenzapandemic emergencestochastic model |
| spellingShingle | Amita Tripathi Harish Chandra Dhakal Khagendra Adhikari Ramesh Chandra Timsina Lindi M. Wahl Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza Journal of Biological Dynamics mathematical epidemiology avian influenza pandemic emergence stochastic model |
| title | Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza |
| title_full | Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza |
| title_short | Estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza |
| title_sort | estimating the risk of pandemic avian influenza |
| topic | mathematical epidemiology avian influenza pandemic emergence stochastic model |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2021.1942570 |
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