Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy
Abstract The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic model to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy. A retrospective clinical study of consecutively asymptomatic women with twin pregnancies from January 2017 to December 2019 in two tertiary medical c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91973-y |
| _version_ | 1818735681579515904 |
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| author | Jun Zhang Wenqiang Zhan Yanling Lin Danlin Yang Li Li Xiaoying Xue Zhi Lin Mian Pan |
| author_facet | Jun Zhang Wenqiang Zhan Yanling Lin Danlin Yang Li Li Xiaoying Xue Zhi Lin Mian Pan |
| author_sort | Jun Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic model to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy. A retrospective clinical study of consecutively asymptomatic women with twin pregnancies from January 2017 to December 2019 in two tertiary medical centres was performed. Data from one centre were used to construct the model, and data from the other were used to evaluate the model. Data on maternal demographic characteristics, transvaginal cervical length and funnelling during 20–24 weeks were extracted. The prediction model was constructed with independent variables determined by multivariate logistic regression analyses. After applying specified exclusion criteria, an algorithm with maternal and biophysical factors was developed based on 88 twin pregnancies with a preterm birth < 32 weeks and 639 twin pregnancies with a delivery ≥ 32 weeks. It was then evaluated among 34 pregnancies with a preterm birth < 32 weeks and 252 pregnancies with a delivery ≥ 32 weeks in a second tertiary centre without specific training. The model reached a sensitivity of 80.00%, specificity of 88.17%, positive predictive value of 50.33% and negative predictive value of 96.71%; ROC characteristics proved that the model was superior to any single parameter with an AUC of 0.848 (all P < 0.005). We developed and validated a dynamic nomogram model to predict the individual probability of early preterm birth to better represent the complex aetiology of twin pregnancies and hopefully improve the prediction and indication of interventions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T00:25:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d999289216bf4d098fccbc7124507143 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T00:25:07Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-d999289216bf4d098fccbc71245071432022-12-21T21:27:15ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222021-06-0111111310.1038/s41598-021-91973-yDevelopment and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancyJun Zhang0Wenqiang Zhan1Yanling Lin2Danlin Yang3Li Li4Xiaoying Xue5Zhi Lin6Mian Pan7Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversitySchool of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Shengli Clinical Medicine College of Fujian Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityDepartment of Medical Ultrasonics, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityDepartment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical UniversityAbstract The purpose of this study was to develop a dynamic model to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy. A retrospective clinical study of consecutively asymptomatic women with twin pregnancies from January 2017 to December 2019 in two tertiary medical centres was performed. Data from one centre were used to construct the model, and data from the other were used to evaluate the model. Data on maternal demographic characteristics, transvaginal cervical length and funnelling during 20–24 weeks were extracted. The prediction model was constructed with independent variables determined by multivariate logistic regression analyses. After applying specified exclusion criteria, an algorithm with maternal and biophysical factors was developed based on 88 twin pregnancies with a preterm birth < 32 weeks and 639 twin pregnancies with a delivery ≥ 32 weeks. It was then evaluated among 34 pregnancies with a preterm birth < 32 weeks and 252 pregnancies with a delivery ≥ 32 weeks in a second tertiary centre without specific training. The model reached a sensitivity of 80.00%, specificity of 88.17%, positive predictive value of 50.33% and negative predictive value of 96.71%; ROC characteristics proved that the model was superior to any single parameter with an AUC of 0.848 (all P < 0.005). We developed and validated a dynamic nomogram model to predict the individual probability of early preterm birth to better represent the complex aetiology of twin pregnancies and hopefully improve the prediction and indication of interventions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91973-y |
| spellingShingle | Jun Zhang Wenqiang Zhan Yanling Lin Danlin Yang Li Li Xiaoying Xue Zhi Lin Mian Pan Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy Scientific Reports |
| title | Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy |
| title_full | Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy |
| title_fullStr | Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy |
| title_short | Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at < 32 weeks in twin pregnancy |
| title_sort | development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting preterm birth at 32 weeks in twin pregnancy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91973-y |
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