Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteor...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/1/3 |
| _version_ | 1797493602858827776 |
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| author | Nega Chalie Emiru John Walker Recha Julian R. Thompson Abrham Belay Ermias Aynekulu Alen Manyevere Teferi D. Demissie Philip M. Osano Jabir Hussein Mikias Biazen Molla Girma Moges Mengistu Dawit Solomon |
| author_facet | Nega Chalie Emiru John Walker Recha Julian R. Thompson Abrham Belay Ermias Aynekulu Alen Manyevere Teferi D. Demissie Philip M. Osano Jabir Hussein Mikias Biazen Molla Girma Moges Mengistu Dawit Solomon |
| author_sort | Nega Chalie Emiru |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q<sub>5</sub>) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q<sub>90</sub>) also decline with Q<sub>90</sub> equaling 0 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:22:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-da0f33e782b34845b079ab81e1b429bf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T01:22:23Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-da0f33e782b34845b079ab81e1b429bf2023-11-23T13:58:21ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382021-12-0191310.3390/hydrology9010003Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, EthiopiaNega Chalie Emiru0John Walker Recha1Julian R. Thompson2Abrham Belay3Ermias Aynekulu4Alen Manyevere5Teferi D. Demissie6Philip M. Osano7Jabir Hussein8Mikias Biazen Molla9Girma Moges Mengistu10Dawit Solomon11College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Shashemene P.O. Box 128, EthiopiaCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, KenyaWetland Research Unit, UCL Department of Geography, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UKCollege of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Shashemene P.O. Box 128, EthiopiaWorld Agroforestry (ICRAF), United Nations Avenue, P.O. Box 30677, Nairobi 00100, KenyaDepartment of Agronomy, University of Fort Hare, 1 King Williamstown Rd, Alice 5700, South AfricaCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, KenyaStockholm Environment Institute—Africa, World Agroforestry, P.O. Box 30677, Nairobi 00100, KenyaInternational Livestock Research Institute, Naivasha Road, P.O. Box 30677, Nairobi 00100, KenyaCollege of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Shashemene P.O. Box 128, EthiopiaCollege of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Shashemene P.O. Box 128, EthiopiaCGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P.O. Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, KenyaThis study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q<sub>5</sub>) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q<sub>90</sub>) also decline with Q<sub>90</sub> equaling 0 m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/1/3Upper Awash Basinclimate changeSWAThydrological droughtSPEIglobal climate models |
| spellingShingle | Nega Chalie Emiru John Walker Recha Julian R. Thompson Abrham Belay Ermias Aynekulu Alen Manyevere Teferi D. Demissie Philip M. Osano Jabir Hussein Mikias Biazen Molla Girma Moges Mengistu Dawit Solomon Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia Hydrology Upper Awash Basin climate change SWAT hydrological drought SPEI global climate models |
| title | Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper awash river basin ethiopia |
| topic | Upper Awash Basin climate change SWAT hydrological drought SPEI global climate models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/9/1/3 |
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