Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.

Critical transitions of complex systems can often be predicted by so-called early-warning signals (EWS). In some cases, however, such signals cannot be detected although a critical transition is imminent. Observing a relation of EWS-detectability and the network topology in which the system is imple...

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Main Authors: Georg Jäger, Christian Hofer, Marie Kapeller, Manfred Füllsack
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2017-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5734744?pdf=render
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author Georg Jäger
Christian Hofer
Marie Kapeller
Manfred Füllsack
author_facet Georg Jäger
Christian Hofer
Marie Kapeller
Manfred Füllsack
author_sort Georg Jäger
collection DOAJ
description Critical transitions of complex systems can often be predicted by so-called early-warning signals (EWS). In some cases, however, such signals cannot be detected although a critical transition is imminent. Observing a relation of EWS-detectability and the network topology in which the system is implemented, we simulate and investigate scale-free networks and identify which networks show, and which do not show EWS in the framework of a two state system that exhibits critical transitions. Additionally, we adapt our approach by examining the effective state of the system, rather than its natural state, and conclude that this transformation can reveal hidden EWS in networks where those signals are otherwise obscured by a complex topology.
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spelling doaj.art-da20121c1cd14ee0bdd306a0a54a790a2022-12-22T01:03:43ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032017-01-011212e018985310.1371/journal.pone.0189853Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.Georg JägerChristian HoferMarie KapellerManfred FüllsackCritical transitions of complex systems can often be predicted by so-called early-warning signals (EWS). In some cases, however, such signals cannot be detected although a critical transition is imminent. Observing a relation of EWS-detectability and the network topology in which the system is implemented, we simulate and investigate scale-free networks and identify which networks show, and which do not show EWS in the framework of a two state system that exhibits critical transitions. Additionally, we adapt our approach by examining the effective state of the system, rather than its natural state, and conclude that this transformation can reveal hidden EWS in networks where those signals are otherwise obscured by a complex topology.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5734744?pdf=render
spellingShingle Georg Jäger
Christian Hofer
Marie Kapeller
Manfred Füllsack
Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.
PLoS ONE
title Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.
title_full Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.
title_fullStr Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.
title_full_unstemmed Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.
title_short Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks.
title_sort hidden early warning signals in scale free networks
url http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5734744?pdf=render
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AT christianhofer hiddenearlywarningsignalsinscalefreenetworks
AT mariekapeller hiddenearlywarningsignalsinscalefreenetworks
AT manfredfullsack hiddenearlywarningsignalsinscalefreenetworks