The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study
COVID-19 has currently become a global pandemic and caused a high number of infected people and deaths. To restrain the coronavirus spread, many countries have implemented restrictions on people’s movement and outdoor activities. The enforcement of health emergencies such as quarantine has a positiv...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/12/407 |
| _version_ | 1797455131825930240 |
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| author | Nuning Nuraini Ilham Saiful Fauzi Bony Wiem Lestari Sila Rizqina |
| author_facet | Nuning Nuraini Ilham Saiful Fauzi Bony Wiem Lestari Sila Rizqina |
| author_sort | Nuning Nuraini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | COVID-19 has currently become a global pandemic and caused a high number of infected people and deaths. To restrain the coronavirus spread, many countries have implemented restrictions on people’s movement and outdoor activities. The enforcement of health emergencies such as quarantine has a positive impact on reducing the COVID-19 infection risk, but it also has unwanted influences on health, social, and economic sectors. Here, we developed a compartmental mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamic accommodating quarantine process and including tuberculosis and diabetic people compartments. We highlighted the potential negative impact induced by quarantine implementation on the increasing number of people with tuberculosis and diabetes. The actual COVID-19 data recorded in Indonesia during the Delta and Omicron variant attacks were well-approximated by the model’s output. A positive relationship was indicated by a high value of Pearson correlation coefficient, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.9344</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for Delta and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.8961</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for Omicron with a significance level of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo><</mo><mn>0.05</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. By varying the value of the quarantine parameter, this study obtained that quarantine effectively reduces the number of COVID-19 but induces an increasing number of tuberculosis and diabetic people. In order to minimize these negative impacts, increasing public awareness about the dangers of TB transmission and implementing a healthy lifestyle were considered the most effective strategies based on the simulation. The insights and results presented in this study are potentially useful for relevant authorities to increase public awareness of the potential risk of TB transmission and to promote a healthy lifestyle during the implementation of quarantine. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:47:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-da26f178e5d84fdabc61f46726576d34 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2414-6366 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:47:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
| spelling | doaj.art-da26f178e5d84fdabc61f46726576d342023-11-24T18:28:03ZengMDPI AGTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease2414-63662022-11-0171240710.3390/tropicalmed7120407The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling StudyNuning Nuraini0Ilham Saiful Fauzi1Bony Wiem Lestari2Sila Rizqina3Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, IndonesiaDepartment of Accounting, Politeknik Negeri Malang, Malang 65141, IndonesiaDepartment of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung 40161, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, IndonesiaCOVID-19 has currently become a global pandemic and caused a high number of infected people and deaths. To restrain the coronavirus spread, many countries have implemented restrictions on people’s movement and outdoor activities. The enforcement of health emergencies such as quarantine has a positive impact on reducing the COVID-19 infection risk, but it also has unwanted influences on health, social, and economic sectors. Here, we developed a compartmental mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission dynamic accommodating quarantine process and including tuberculosis and diabetic people compartments. We highlighted the potential negative impact induced by quarantine implementation on the increasing number of people with tuberculosis and diabetes. The actual COVID-19 data recorded in Indonesia during the Delta and Omicron variant attacks were well-approximated by the model’s output. A positive relationship was indicated by a high value of Pearson correlation coefficient, <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.9344</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for Delta and <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>r</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.8961</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula> for Omicron with a significance level of <inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi>p</mi><mo><</mo><mn>0.05</mn></mrow></semantics></math></inline-formula>. By varying the value of the quarantine parameter, this study obtained that quarantine effectively reduces the number of COVID-19 but induces an increasing number of tuberculosis and diabetic people. In order to minimize these negative impacts, increasing public awareness about the dangers of TB transmission and implementing a healthy lifestyle were considered the most effective strategies based on the simulation. The insights and results presented in this study are potentially useful for relevant authorities to increase public awareness of the potential risk of TB transmission and to promote a healthy lifestyle during the implementation of quarantine.https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/12/407COVID-19tuberculosisdiabetesmathematical modelquarantinecontrol strategy |
| spellingShingle | Nuning Nuraini Ilham Saiful Fauzi Bony Wiem Lestari Sila Rizqina The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease COVID-19 tuberculosis diabetes mathematical model quarantine control strategy |
| title | The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study |
| title_full | The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study |
| title_short | The Impact of COVID-19 Quarantine on Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus Cases: A Modelling Study |
| title_sort | impact of covid 19 quarantine on tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus cases a modelling study |
| topic | COVID-19 tuberculosis diabetes mathematical model quarantine control strategy |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2414-6366/7/12/407 |
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