Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales
Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability and its prediction. There has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales, and this effort has continued to make progress in recent years. Besides the Mad...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2019-09-01
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| Series: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603219300712 |
| _version_ | 1819157737802563584 |
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| author | Suzana J. Camargo Joanne Camp Russell L. Elsberry Paul A. Gregory Philip J. Klotzbach Carl J. Schreck, III Adam H. Sobel Michael J. Ventrice Frédéric Vitart Zhuo Wang Matthew C. Wheeler Munehiko Yamaguchi Ruifen Zhan |
| author_facet | Suzana J. Camargo Joanne Camp Russell L. Elsberry Paul A. Gregory Philip J. Klotzbach Carl J. Schreck, III Adam H. Sobel Michael J. Ventrice Frédéric Vitart Zhuo Wang Matthew C. Wheeler Munehiko Yamaguchi Ruifen Zhan |
| author_sort | Suzana J. Camargo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Here we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability and its prediction. There has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales, and this effort has continued to make progress in recent years. Besides the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), other modes of variability affect TCs at these time-scales, in particular various equatorial waves. Additionally, TC activity is also modulated by extratropical processes via Rossby wave breaking.There has also been progress in the ability of models to simulate the MJO and its modulation of TC activity. Community efforts have created multi-model ensemble datasets, which have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of the MJO and TCs on subseasonal time-scales in multiple forecasting systems. While there is positive skill in some cases, there is strong dependence on the ensemble system considered, the basin examined, and whether the storms have extratropical influences or not. Furthermore, the definition of skill differs among studies. Forecasting centers are currently issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques (statistical, statistical-dynamical and dynamical). There is also a strong interest in the private sector for forecasts with 3-4 weeks lead time. Keywords: tropical cyclones, subseasonal, forecasts, hurricanes, MJO |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-22T16:13:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-da6c363431d24e1f81c00ec1913a5780 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-6032 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-22T16:13:32Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-da6c363431d24e1f81c00ec1913a57802022-12-21T18:20:25ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322019-09-0183150165Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-ScalesSuzana J. Camargo0Joanne Camp1Russell L. Elsberry2Paul A. Gregory3Philip J. Klotzbach4Carl J. Schreck, III5Adam H. Sobel6Michael J. Ventrice7Frédéric Vitart8Zhuo Wang9Matthew C. Wheeler10Munehiko Yamaguchi11Ruifen Zhan12Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA; Corresponding author.Met Office, Exeter, United KingdomDepartment of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA and Trauma, Health, and Hazards Center, University of Colorado-Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, CO, USABureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaDepartment of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USACooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina (CICS-NC), North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC, USALamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USAWeather Company/IBM, Andover, MA, USAEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United KingdomDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champagne, IL, USABureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, AustraliaMeteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibariki, JapanShanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, ChinaHere we discuss recent progress in understanding tropical cyclone (TC) subseasonal variability and its prediction. There has been a concerted effort to understand the sources of predictability at subseasonal time-scales, and this effort has continued to make progress in recent years. Besides the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), other modes of variability affect TCs at these time-scales, in particular various equatorial waves. Additionally, TC activity is also modulated by extratropical processes via Rossby wave breaking.There has also been progress in the ability of models to simulate the MJO and its modulation of TC activity. Community efforts have created multi-model ensemble datasets, which have made it possible to evaluate the forecast skill of the MJO and TCs on subseasonal time-scales in multiple forecasting systems. While there is positive skill in some cases, there is strong dependence on the ensemble system considered, the basin examined, and whether the storms have extratropical influences or not. Furthermore, the definition of skill differs among studies. Forecasting centers are currently issuing subseasonal TC forecasts using various techniques (statistical, statistical-dynamical and dynamical). There is also a strong interest in the private sector for forecasts with 3-4 weeks lead time. Keywords: tropical cyclones, subseasonal, forecasts, hurricanes, MJOhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603219300712 |
| spellingShingle | Suzana J. Camargo Joanne Camp Russell L. Elsberry Paul A. Gregory Philip J. Klotzbach Carl J. Schreck, III Adam H. Sobel Michael J. Ventrice Frédéric Vitart Zhuo Wang Matthew C. Wheeler Munehiko Yamaguchi Ruifen Zhan Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| title | Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales |
| title_full | Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales |
| title_fullStr | Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales |
| title_short | Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales |
| title_sort | tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time scales |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603219300712 |
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