The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps
We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km ^2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Gla...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005 |
| _version_ | 1797748454809665536 |
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| author | H Machguth P Rastner T Bolch N Mölg L Sandberg Sørensen G Aðalgeirsdottir J H van Angelen M R van den Broeke X Fettweis |
| author_facet | H Machguth P Rastner T Bolch N Mölg L Sandberg Sørensen G Aðalgeirsdottir J H van Angelen M R van den Broeke X Fettweis |
| author_sort | H Machguth |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km ^2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:05:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-da7c55774b434fc9b2edfe82b35be0cb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:05:59Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-da7c55774b434fc9b2edfe82b35be0cb2023-08-09T14:24:02ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262013-01-018202500510.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice capsH Machguth0P Rastner1T Bolch2N Mölg3L Sandberg Sørensen4G Aðalgeirsdottir5J H van Angelen6M R van den Broeke7X Fettweis8Department of Geography, University of Zurich , Switzerland; Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) , Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Geography, University of Zurich , SwitzerlandDepartment of Geography, University of Zurich , Switzerland; Institute for Cartography, Technical University Dresden , GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of Zurich , SwitzerlandTechnical University of Denmark , Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkDanish Meteorological Institute (DMI) , Copenhagen, DenmarkInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU) , Utrecht, The NetherlandsInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU) , Utrecht, The NetherlandsDepartment of Geography, University of Liège , Liège, BelgiumWe calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ∼90 000 km ^2 ) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005Greenlandglaciers and ice capssea level rise contributionclimate model outputglacier retreat parameterization |
| spellingShingle | H Machguth P Rastner T Bolch N Mölg L Sandberg Sørensen G Aðalgeirsdottir J H van Angelen M R van den Broeke X Fettweis The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps Environmental Research Letters Greenland glaciers and ice caps sea level rise contribution climate model output glacier retreat parameterization |
| title | The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps |
| title_full | The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps |
| title_fullStr | The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps |
| title_full_unstemmed | The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps |
| title_short | The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps |
| title_sort | future sea level rise contribution of greenland s glaciers and ice caps |
| topic | Greenland glaciers and ice caps sea level rise contribution climate model output glacier retreat parameterization |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/025005 |
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