Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience
Abstract Background Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2019-06-01
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| Series: | International Journal for Equity in Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8 |
| _version_ | 1818146859784339456 |
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| author | António Alvarenga Carlos A. Bana e Costa Carme Borrell Pedro Lopes Ferreira Ângela Freitas Liliana Freitas Mónica D. Oliveira Teresa C. Rodrigues Paula Santana Maria Lopes Santos Ana C. L. Vieira |
| author_facet | António Alvarenga Carlos A. Bana e Costa Carme Borrell Pedro Lopes Ferreira Ângela Freitas Liliana Freitas Mónica D. Oliveira Teresa C. Rodrigues Paula Santana Maria Lopes Santos Ana C. L. Vieira |
| author_sort | António Alvarenga |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T12:26:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dad6b60cec4b4d5da6024d2591765883 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1475-9276 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T12:26:03Z |
| publishDate | 2019-06-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal for Equity in Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-dad6b60cec4b4d5da6024d25917658832022-12-22T01:07:24ZengBMCInternational Journal for Equity in Health1475-92762019-06-0118111810.1186/s12939-019-1000-8Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experienceAntónio Alvarenga0Carlos A. Bana e Costa1Carme Borrell2Pedro Lopes Ferreira3Ângela Freitas4Liliana Freitas5Mónica D. Oliveira6Teresa C. Rodrigues7Paula Santana8Maria Lopes Santos9Ana C. L. Vieira10ALVA Research and ConsultingCEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies of Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de LisboaAgència de Salut Pública de BarcelonaCenter for Health Studies and Research (CEISUC), University of CoimbraCentre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT), University of CoimbraCEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies of Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de LisboaCEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies of Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de LisboaCEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies of Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de LisboaCentre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT), University of CoimbraALVA Research and ConsultingCEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies of Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de LisboaAbstract Background Health inequalities have been consistently reported across and within European countries and continue to pose major challenges to policy-making. The development of scenarios regarding what could affect population health (PH) inequalities across Europe in the future is considered critical. Scenarios can help policy-makers prepare and better cope with fast evolving challenges. Objective This paper describes the three 2030 time-horizon scenarios developed under the EURO-HEALTHY project, depicting the key factors that may affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions. Methods A three-stage socio-technical approach was applied: i) identification of drivers (key factors expected to affect the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions until 2030) – this stage engaged in a Web-Delphi process a multidisciplinary panel of 51 experts and other stakeholders representing the different perspectives regarding PH inequalities; ii) generation of scenario structures – different drivers’ configurations (i.e. their hypotheses for evolution) were organized into coherent scenario structures using the Extreme-World Method; and iii) validation of scenario structures and generation of scenario narratives. Stages ii) and iii) were conducted in two workshops with a strategic group of 13 experts with a wide view about PH inequalities. The scenario narratives were elaborated with the participants’ insights from both the Web-Delphi process and the two workshops, together with the use of evidence (both current and future-oriented) on the different areas within the PH domain. Results Three scenarios were developed for the evolution of PH inequalities in Europe until 2030: ‘Failing Europe’ (worst-case but plausible picture of the future), ‘Sustainable Prosperity’ (best-case but plausible picture of the future), and an interim scenario ‘Being Stuck’ depicting a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ evolution. These scenarios show the extent to which a combination of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental drivers shape future health inequalities, providing information for European policy-makers to reflect upon whether and how to design robust policy solutions to tackle PH inequalities. Conclusions The EURO-HEALTHY scenarios were designed to inform both policy design and appraisal. They broaden the scope, create awareness and generate insights regarding the evolution of PH inequalities across European regions.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8Health inequalitiesPopulation HealthParticipatory approachDelphi methodForesightPolicies |
| spellingShingle | António Alvarenga Carlos A. Bana e Costa Carme Borrell Pedro Lopes Ferreira Ângela Freitas Liliana Freitas Mónica D. Oliveira Teresa C. Rodrigues Paula Santana Maria Lopes Santos Ana C. L. Vieira Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience International Journal for Equity in Health Health inequalities Population Health Participatory approach Delphi method Foresight Policies |
| title | Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
| title_full | Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
| title_fullStr | Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
| title_full_unstemmed | Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
| title_short | Scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in Europe: the EURO-HEALTHY project experience |
| title_sort | scenarios for population health inequalities in 2030 in europe the euro healthy project experience |
| topic | Health inequalities Population Health Participatory approach Delphi method Foresight Policies |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12939-019-1000-8 |
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