Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe
Violent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual tornadoes can reach several billion euros and they have caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, but so far only a few national maps of tornado risk a...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/7/768 |
| _version_ | 1797561837629210624 |
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| author | Jürgen Grieser Phil Haines |
| author_facet | Jürgen Grieser Phil Haines |
| author_sort | Jürgen Grieser |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Violent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual tornadoes can reach several billion euros and they have caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, but so far only a few national maps of tornado risk and one Europe-wide map exist. We show several different ways to create quantitative maps of tornado occurrence rates as follows: Kernel smoothing of observations, climatologies of convective parameters from reanalysis, output of a logistic regression model to link convective parameters with observed tornadoes, orography-dependent climatologies and finally the population-bias corrected tornado occurrence rates from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Severe Convective Storm Model. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of each approach and compare the results. While the climatologies created from the individual methods show a lot of qualitative similarities, we advocate to combine the methods to achieve the most reliable quantitative climatology. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:20:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dae3e6b889b7480f91f2a5ef5370aaa5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:20:16Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-dae3e6b889b7480f91f2a5ef5370aaa52023-11-20T07:25:19ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332020-07-0111776810.3390/atmos11070768Tornado Risk Climatology in EuropeJürgen Grieser0Phil Haines1RMS, Peninsular House, London EC3 8NB, UKRMS, Peninsular House, London EC3 8NB, UKViolent tornadoes are rare in Europe but they can have devastating effects. Damage associated with individual tornadoes can reach several billion euros and they have caused hundreds of fatalities. The tornado risk varies considerably over Europe, but so far only a few national maps of tornado risk and one Europe-wide map exist. We show several different ways to create quantitative maps of tornado occurrence rates as follows: Kernel smoothing of observations, climatologies of convective parameters from reanalysis, output of a logistic regression model to link convective parameters with observed tornadoes, orography-dependent climatologies and finally the population-bias corrected tornado occurrence rates from the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Europe Severe Convective Storm Model. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of each approach and compare the results. While the climatologies created from the individual methods show a lot of qualitative similarities, we advocate to combine the methods to achieve the most reliable quantitative climatology.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/7/768tornadorisk climatologyEurope |
| spellingShingle | Jürgen Grieser Phil Haines Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe Atmosphere tornado risk climatology Europe |
| title | Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe |
| title_full | Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe |
| title_short | Tornado Risk Climatology in Europe |
| title_sort | tornado risk climatology in europe |
| topic | tornado risk climatology Europe |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/7/768 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jurgengrieser tornadoriskclimatologyineurope AT philhaines tornadoriskclimatologyineurope |