Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news
This study delves into the progression of nuclear war risk perceptions during the initial 6 months of the Ukraine war. It particularly investigated the influence of Italian media coverage changes and the affective tone of war representation. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, two separate yet inter...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297524000020/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797301286130941952 |
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| author | Marco Lauriola Gabriele Di Cicco Lucia Savadori |
| author_facet | Marco Lauriola Gabriele Di Cicco Lucia Savadori |
| author_sort | Marco Lauriola |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study delves into the progression of nuclear war risk perceptions during the initial 6 months of the Ukraine war. It particularly investigated the influence of Italian media coverage changes and the affective tone of war representation. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, two separate yet interconnected studies were conducted. The first study employed web scraping and keyword selection techniques to assess emotional language and quantify war-related content in the headlines of Italian online newspapers from March to July 2022. Results demonstrated a linear decrease in war-related news and an emotional shift, with a significant decrease in fear and an increase in joy noted between March and May. The second study examined nuclear war risk perceptions at an individual level, surveying a panel of 397 Italians at three distinct points during the same time frame. The findings revealed a similarity between the media’s affective tone and individuals’ affective risk perceptions. Analytic risk perception, in contrast, showed a linear decrease that matched the decline in war-related news volume. The study found preexisting individual differences, among women and older participants, to be significant determinants in shaping risk perception evolution. These groups exhibited higher initial risk perceptions and more resistance to change as the scenario unfolded. This research contributes to the existing body of work that underscores the media’s role in influencing risk perceptions by illuminating the relationship between media representation of the Ukraine war and individual-level affective risk perception. Furthermore, it highlights individual differences as significant moderators of risk perception change during a crisis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:19:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-db16e3f14f40489289e3b340bce82637 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1930-2975 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T23:19:23Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Judgment and Decision Making |
| spelling | doaj.art-db16e3f14f40489289e3b340bce826372024-02-21T09:16:54ZengCambridge University PressJudgment and Decision Making1930-29752024-01-011910.1017/jdm.2024.2Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian newsMarco Lauriola0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3996-9567Gabriele Di Cicco1Lucia Savadori2Department of Social and Developmental Psychology, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, ItalyInstitute of Psychology, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, PolandDepartment of Economics and Management, University of Trento, Trento, ItalyThis study delves into the progression of nuclear war risk perceptions during the initial 6 months of the Ukraine war. It particularly investigated the influence of Italian media coverage changes and the affective tone of war representation. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, two separate yet interconnected studies were conducted. The first study employed web scraping and keyword selection techniques to assess emotional language and quantify war-related content in the headlines of Italian online newspapers from March to July 2022. Results demonstrated a linear decrease in war-related news and an emotional shift, with a significant decrease in fear and an increase in joy noted between March and May. The second study examined nuclear war risk perceptions at an individual level, surveying a panel of 397 Italians at three distinct points during the same time frame. The findings revealed a similarity between the media’s affective tone and individuals’ affective risk perceptions. Analytic risk perception, in contrast, showed a linear decrease that matched the decline in war-related news volume. The study found preexisting individual differences, among women and older participants, to be significant determinants in shaping risk perception evolution. These groups exhibited higher initial risk perceptions and more resistance to change as the scenario unfolded. This research contributes to the existing body of work that underscores the media’s role in influencing risk perceptions by illuminating the relationship between media representation of the Ukraine war and individual-level affective risk perception. Furthermore, it highlights individual differences as significant moderators of risk perception change during a crisis.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297524000020/type/journal_articlerisk perceptionnuclear warUkraine warmedia coverageaffective toneindividual differencescrisis communication |
| spellingShingle | Marco Lauriola Gabriele Di Cicco Lucia Savadori Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news Judgment and Decision Making risk perception nuclear war Ukraine war media coverage affective tone individual differences crisis communication |
| title | Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news |
| title_full | Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news |
| title_fullStr | Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news |
| title_full_unstemmed | Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news |
| title_short | Apocalypse now or later? Nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in Italian news |
| title_sort | apocalypse now or later nuclear war risk perceptions mirroring media coverage and emotional tone shifts in italian news |
| topic | risk perception nuclear war Ukraine war media coverage affective tone individual differences crisis communication |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297524000020/type/journal_article |
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