A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models
Due to the increase in future uncertainty caused by rapid environmental, societal, and technological change, exploring multiple scenarios has become increasingly important in urban planning. Land Change Modeling (LCM) enables planners to have the ability to mold uncertain future land changes into mo...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2020-07-01
|
| Series: | Land |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/8/246 |
| _version_ | 1797561260531777536 |
|---|---|
| author | Youjung Kim Galen Newman Burak Güneralp |
| author_facet | Youjung Kim Galen Newman Burak Güneralp |
| author_sort | Youjung Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Due to the increase in future uncertainty caused by rapid environmental, societal, and technological change, exploring multiple scenarios has become increasingly important in urban planning. Land Change Modeling (LCM) enables planners to have the ability to mold uncertain future land changes into more determined conditions via scenarios. This paper reviews the literature on urban LCM and identifies driving factors, scenario themes/types, and topics. The results show that: (1) in total, 113 driving factors have been used in previous LCM studies including natural, built environment, and socio-economic factors, and this number ranges from three to twenty-one variables per model; (2) typical scenario themes include “environmental protection” and “compact development”; and (3) LCM topics are primarily growth prediction and prediction tools, and the rest are growth-related impact studies. The nature and number of driving factors vary across models and sites, and drivers are heavily determined by both urban context and theoretical framework. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:11:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-db8192cc42e04b6c849f4ccd44671824 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:11:31Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-db8192cc42e04b6c849f4ccd446718242023-11-20T08:04:45ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2020-07-019824610.3390/land9080246A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change ModelsYoujung Kim0Galen Newman1Burak Güneralp2Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USADepartment of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USADepartment of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USADue to the increase in future uncertainty caused by rapid environmental, societal, and technological change, exploring multiple scenarios has become increasingly important in urban planning. Land Change Modeling (LCM) enables planners to have the ability to mold uncertain future land changes into more determined conditions via scenarios. This paper reviews the literature on urban LCM and identifies driving factors, scenario themes/types, and topics. The results show that: (1) in total, 113 driving factors have been used in previous LCM studies including natural, built environment, and socio-economic factors, and this number ranges from three to twenty-one variables per model; (2) typical scenario themes include “environmental protection” and “compact development”; and (3) LCM topics are primarily growth prediction and prediction tools, and the rest are growth-related impact studies. The nature and number of driving factors vary across models and sites, and drivers are heavily determined by both urban context and theoretical framework.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/8/246urban land changeland change modeldriving factorsuncertaintyscenariosscenario development |
| spellingShingle | Youjung Kim Galen Newman Burak Güneralp A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models Land urban land change land change model driving factors uncertainty scenarios scenario development |
| title | A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models |
| title_full | A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models |
| title_fullStr | A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models |
| title_short | A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models |
| title_sort | review of driving factors scenarios and topics in urban land change models |
| topic | urban land change land change model driving factors uncertainty scenarios scenario development |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/8/246 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT youjungkim areviewofdrivingfactorsscenariosandtopicsinurbanlandchangemodels AT galennewman areviewofdrivingfactorsscenariosandtopicsinurbanlandchangemodels AT burakguneralp areviewofdrivingfactorsscenariosandtopicsinurbanlandchangemodels AT youjungkim reviewofdrivingfactorsscenariosandtopicsinurbanlandchangemodels AT galennewman reviewofdrivingfactorsscenariosandtopicsinurbanlandchangemodels AT burakguneralp reviewofdrivingfactorsscenariosandtopicsinurbanlandchangemodels |