A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study
Background: Hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP) is a type of pancreatitis characterized by an abnormal elevation of plasma triglyceride. HTG-SAP has been associated with various complications and a high mortality rate. In this study, we established a nomogram for predict...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023106621 |
| _version_ | 1797337059915988992 |
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| author | Hongsheng Wu Biling Liao Tengfei Ji Shichao Jia Yumei Luo Keqiang Ma |
| author_facet | Hongsheng Wu Biling Liao Tengfei Ji Shichao Jia Yumei Luo Keqiang Ma |
| author_sort | Hongsheng Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP) is a type of pancreatitis characterized by an abnormal elevation of plasma triglyceride. HTG-SAP has been associated with various complications and a high mortality rate. In this study, we established a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of HTG-SAP patients during hospitalization. Methods: 128 HTG-SAP cases hospitalized at the Affiliated Huadu Hospital, Southern Medical University, from 2019 to 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. A nomogram including prognostic factors correlated with OS during hospitalization was established by multivariate Cox regression analysis. We internally validated the nomogram using time-dependent (at 1-, 2-, and 3- months) survival receiver operating characteristic (SROC) and calibration curve with 500 iterations of bootstrap resampling. Time-dependent decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to validate the clinical value of the nomogram. Results: Multivariate Cox regression indicated that serum triglyceride, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), lactic acid, and interleukin-6 (IL6) were independent prognostic factors for OS of HTG-SAP patients during hospitalization and were used to construct a nomogram. The time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) values at 1-, 2-, and 3- months were 0.946, 0.913, and 0.929, respectively, and the Concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was 0.916 (95%CI 0.871–0.961). The time-dependent calibration curves indicated good consistency between the observed and predicted outcomes. The time-dependent DCAs also revealed that the nomogram yielded a high clinical net benefit. After stratifying the included cases into two risk groups based on the risk score obtained from the nomogram, the high-risk group exhibited a significantly inferior overall survival (OS) compared to the low-risk group (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Our nomogram exhibited good performance in predicting the overall survival of HTG-SAP patients during hospitalization. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T09:03:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-db8a382a8723476c9fd5d5e6112cfda0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T09:03:55Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj.art-db8a382a8723476c9fd5d5e6112cfda02024-02-01T06:31:57ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402024-01-01101e23454A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional studyHongsheng Wu0Biling Liao1Tengfei Ji2Shichao Jia3Yumei Luo4Keqiang Ma5Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Huadu District People's Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, 510800, Guangdong, PR China; Corresponding author.Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Huadu District People's Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, 510800, Guangdong, PR ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Huadu District People's Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, 510800, Guangdong, PR ChinaInformation Network Center, Huadu District People's Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, 510800, Guangdong, PR ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Huadu District People's Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, 510800, Guangdong, PR ChinaDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Huadu District People's Hospital of Guangzhou, Guangzhou, 510800, Guangdong, PR China; Corresponding author.Background: Hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis (HTG-SAP) is a type of pancreatitis characterized by an abnormal elevation of plasma triglyceride. HTG-SAP has been associated with various complications and a high mortality rate. In this study, we established a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) of HTG-SAP patients during hospitalization. Methods: 128 HTG-SAP cases hospitalized at the Affiliated Huadu Hospital, Southern Medical University, from 2019 to 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. A nomogram including prognostic factors correlated with OS during hospitalization was established by multivariate Cox regression analysis. We internally validated the nomogram using time-dependent (at 1-, 2-, and 3- months) survival receiver operating characteristic (SROC) and calibration curve with 500 iterations of bootstrap resampling. Time-dependent decision curve analysis (DCA) was employed to validate the clinical value of the nomogram. Results: Multivariate Cox regression indicated that serum triglyceride, red blood cell distribution width (RDW), lactic acid, and interleukin-6 (IL6) were independent prognostic factors for OS of HTG-SAP patients during hospitalization and were used to construct a nomogram. The time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) values at 1-, 2-, and 3- months were 0.946, 0.913, and 0.929, respectively, and the Concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was 0.916 (95%CI 0.871–0.961). The time-dependent calibration curves indicated good consistency between the observed and predicted outcomes. The time-dependent DCAs also revealed that the nomogram yielded a high clinical net benefit. After stratifying the included cases into two risk groups based on the risk score obtained from the nomogram, the high-risk group exhibited a significantly inferior overall survival (OS) compared to the low-risk group (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Our nomogram exhibited good performance in predicting the overall survival of HTG-SAP patients during hospitalization.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023106621Severe acute pancreatitisHypertriglyceridemiaPretreatment nomogramPrognosis |
| spellingShingle | Hongsheng Wu Biling Liao Tengfei Ji Shichao Jia Yumei Luo Keqiang Ma A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study Heliyon Severe acute pancreatitis Hypertriglyceridemia Pretreatment nomogram Prognosis |
| title | A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study |
| title_full | A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study |
| title_fullStr | A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study |
| title_short | A nomogram for predicting in-hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia-induced severe acute pancreatitis: A single center, cross-sectional study |
| title_sort | nomogram for predicting in hospital overall survival of hypertriglyceridemia induced severe acute pancreatitis a single center cross sectional study |
| topic | Severe acute pancreatitis Hypertriglyceridemia Pretreatment nomogram Prognosis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844023106621 |
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