Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model
Existing models for assessing ship collision risk involve complex calculations that complicate the simultaneous qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors affecting ship navigation safety. Therefore, these models often exhibit slow generation of the risk index and evaluation results with r...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IEEE
2020-01-01
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| Series: | IEEE Access |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9284443/ |
| _version_ | 1811274240895221760 |
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| author | Hongdan Liu Lanyong Zhang Sheng Liu |
| author_facet | Hongdan Liu Lanyong Zhang Sheng Liu |
| author_sort | Hongdan Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Existing models for assessing ship collision risk involve complex calculations that complicate the simultaneous qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors affecting ship navigation safety. Therefore, these models often exhibit slow generation of the risk index and evaluation results with reduced accuracy. To resolve these issues, we model the ship collision risk based on the cloud model theory. Specifically, we select “distance of closest point of approach (DCPA)” and “time to closest point of approach (TCPA)” as the main factors affecting the ship collision risk and analyze the data of DCPA, TCPA, and collision risk index (CRI) based on their cloud models. By combining these analyses with a double-condition-single-rule generator, we construct a cloud model for ship collision risk and finally develop a cloud model-based inference engine system to assess ship collision risk. This engine allows us to establish different ship collision risk analysis models according to the scenario encountered by the ship, which can be used to verify the feasibility of the proposed algorithm for ship collision risk modeling. Through comparisons with traditional ship collision risk models, the proposed ship collision risk model is found to be superior owing to its simple implementation, accurate results, and shorter time required to generate the risk model. The model established in this study enables the crew to determine the key objects to be avoided in case of potential collision with multiple ships. At last,analysis and research of cloud model ship collision risk based on global sensitivity and uncertainty are done to reduce the dimension of the risk parameters and show the main factors of unstable collision risk,therefore,the uncertain results in the calculation of the degree of danger are avoided, some reasonable suggestions are proposed for real navigation safety. the maritime pilot can make correct decisions promptly to reduce or avoid the occurrence of collision accidents. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:15:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-db9139220af94062a6360eedd022bcbb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2169-3536 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:15:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IEEE |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IEEE Access |
| spelling | doaj.art-db9139220af94062a6360eedd022bcbb2022-12-22T03:12:43ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362020-01-01822116222117510.1109/ACCESS.2020.30428119284443Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud ModelHongdan Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3064-3587Lanyong Zhang1Sheng Liu2College of Intelligent Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, ChinaCollege of Intelligent Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, ChinaCollege of Intelligent Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, ChinaExisting models for assessing ship collision risk involve complex calculations that complicate the simultaneous qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors affecting ship navigation safety. Therefore, these models often exhibit slow generation of the risk index and evaluation results with reduced accuracy. To resolve these issues, we model the ship collision risk based on the cloud model theory. Specifically, we select “distance of closest point of approach (DCPA)” and “time to closest point of approach (TCPA)” as the main factors affecting the ship collision risk and analyze the data of DCPA, TCPA, and collision risk index (CRI) based on their cloud models. By combining these analyses with a double-condition-single-rule generator, we construct a cloud model for ship collision risk and finally develop a cloud model-based inference engine system to assess ship collision risk. This engine allows us to establish different ship collision risk analysis models according to the scenario encountered by the ship, which can be used to verify the feasibility of the proposed algorithm for ship collision risk modeling. Through comparisons with traditional ship collision risk models, the proposed ship collision risk model is found to be superior owing to its simple implementation, accurate results, and shorter time required to generate the risk model. The model established in this study enables the crew to determine the key objects to be avoided in case of potential collision with multiple ships. At last,analysis and research of cloud model ship collision risk based on global sensitivity and uncertainty are done to reduce the dimension of the risk parameters and show the main factors of unstable collision risk,therefore,the uncertain results in the calculation of the degree of danger are avoided, some reasonable suggestions are proposed for real navigation safety. the maritime pilot can make correct decisions promptly to reduce or avoid the occurrence of collision accidents.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9284443/Cloud model theorydistance of closest point of approachdouble-condition-single-rule generatorship collision risktime to closest point of approach |
| spellingShingle | Hongdan Liu Lanyong Zhang Sheng Liu Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model IEEE Access Cloud model theory distance of closest point of approach double-condition-single-rule generator ship collision risk time to closest point of approach |
| title | Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model |
| title_full | Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model |
| title_fullStr | Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model |
| title_short | Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Based on Cloud Model |
| title_sort | modeling of ship collision risk based on cloud model |
| topic | Cloud model theory distance of closest point of approach double-condition-single-rule generator ship collision risk time to closest point of approach |
| url | https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9284443/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hongdanliu modelingofshipcollisionriskbasedoncloudmodel AT lanyongzhang modelingofshipcollisionriskbasedoncloudmodel AT shengliu modelingofshipcollisionriskbasedoncloudmodel |