Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions
Cumulative CO _2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO _2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2017-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0 |
| _version_ | 1827870866442027008 |
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| author | Antti-Ilari Partanen Martin Leduc H Damon Matthews |
| author_facet | Antti-Ilari Partanen Martin Leduc H Damon Matthews |
| author_sort | Antti-Ilari Partanen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Cumulative CO _2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO _2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO _2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO _2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-db995f2944a2468f988ef6abc06542ef |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:03:02Z |
| publishDate | 2017-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-db995f2944a2468f988ef6abc06542ef2023-08-09T14:33:40ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262017-01-0112707500210.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissionsAntti-Ilari Partanen0Martin Leduc1H Damon Matthews2Concordia University , Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, 1455 De Maisonneuve Boulevard West, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Research , P.O. Box 503, 00101, Helsinki, Finland; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Ouranos , 550 Sherbrooke West, West Tower, 19th floor, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B9, CanadaConcordia University , Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, 1455 De Maisonneuve Boulevard West, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, CanadaCumulative CO _2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO _2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO _2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO _2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0CMIP5cumulative carbon emissionsseasonal climate changepattern scalingTCRE |
| spellingShingle | Antti-Ilari Partanen Martin Leduc H Damon Matthews Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions Environmental Research Letters CMIP5 cumulative carbon emissions seasonal climate change pattern scaling TCRE |
| title | Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_full | Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_short | Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions |
| title_sort | seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative co2 emissions |
| topic | CMIP5 cumulative carbon emissions seasonal climate change pattern scaling TCRE |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0 |
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