Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States
1. Background: Some reports have suggested that as many as one-half of all hospital inpatients identified as COVID-19-positive during the Omicron BA.1 variant-driven wave were incidental cases admitted primarily for reasons other than their viral infections. To date, however, there are no prospectiv...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | COVID |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8112/3/5/54 |
| _version_ | 1797600603966275584 |
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| author | Jeffrey E. Harris |
| author_facet | Jeffrey E. Harris |
| author_sort | Jeffrey E. Harris |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | 1. Background: Some reports have suggested that as many as one-half of all hospital inpatients identified as COVID-19-positive during the Omicron BA.1 variant-driven wave were incidental cases admitted primarily for reasons other than their viral infections. To date, however, there are no prospective longitudinal studies of a representative panel of hospitals based on pre-established criteria for determining whether a patient was, in fact, admitted as a result of the disease. 2. Materials and Methods: To fill this gap, we developed a formula to estimate the fraction of incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations that relies on measurable, population-based parameters. We applied our approach to a longitudinal panel of 164 counties throughout the United States, covering a 4-week interval ending in the first week of January 2022. 3. Results: Within this panel, we estimated that COVID-19 incidence was rising exponentially at a rate of 9.34% per day (95% CI, 8.93–9.87). Assuming that only one-quarter of all Omicron BA.1 infections had been reported by public authorities, we further estimated the aggregate prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first week of January to be 3.45%. During the same week, among 250 high-COVID-volume hospitals within our 164-county panel, an estimated one in four inpatients was COVID-positive. Based upon these estimates, we computed that 10.6% of such COVID-19-positive hospitalized patients were incidental infections. Across individual counties, the median fraction of incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations was 9.5%, with an interquartile range of 6.7 to 12.7%. 4. Conclusion: Incidental COVID-19 infections appear to have been a nontrivial fraction of all COVID-19-positive hospitalized patients during the Omicron BA.1 wave. In the aggregate, however, the burden of patients admitted for complications of their viral infections was far greater. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:50:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dbad5e0d8568456680f433d9a006b1bf |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-8112 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:50:11Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | COVID |
| spelling | doaj.art-dbad5e0d8568456680f433d9a006b1bf2023-11-18T00:58:41ZengMDPI AGCOVID2673-81122023-05-013572874310.3390/covid3050054Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United StatesJeffrey E. Harris0Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA1. Background: Some reports have suggested that as many as one-half of all hospital inpatients identified as COVID-19-positive during the Omicron BA.1 variant-driven wave were incidental cases admitted primarily for reasons other than their viral infections. To date, however, there are no prospective longitudinal studies of a representative panel of hospitals based on pre-established criteria for determining whether a patient was, in fact, admitted as a result of the disease. 2. Materials and Methods: To fill this gap, we developed a formula to estimate the fraction of incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations that relies on measurable, population-based parameters. We applied our approach to a longitudinal panel of 164 counties throughout the United States, covering a 4-week interval ending in the first week of January 2022. 3. Results: Within this panel, we estimated that COVID-19 incidence was rising exponentially at a rate of 9.34% per day (95% CI, 8.93–9.87). Assuming that only one-quarter of all Omicron BA.1 infections had been reported by public authorities, we further estimated the aggregate prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first week of January to be 3.45%. During the same week, among 250 high-COVID-volume hospitals within our 164-county panel, an estimated one in four inpatients was COVID-positive. Based upon these estimates, we computed that 10.6% of such COVID-19-positive hospitalized patients were incidental infections. Across individual counties, the median fraction of incidental COVID-19 hospitalizations was 9.5%, with an interquartile range of 6.7 to 12.7%. 4. Conclusion: Incidental COVID-19 infections appear to have been a nontrivial fraction of all COVID-19-positive hospitalized patients during the Omicron BA.1 wave. In the aggregate, however, the burden of patients admitted for complications of their viral infections was far greater.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8112/3/5/54SARS-CoV-2population-based prevalencedisease under-reportingintegrative epidemiologycohort of U.S counties |
| spellingShingle | Jeffrey E. Harris Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States COVID SARS-CoV-2 population-based prevalence disease under-reporting integrative epidemiology cohort of U.S counties |
| title | Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States |
| title_full | Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States |
| title_fullStr | Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States |
| title_short | Population-Based Model of the Fraction of Incidental COVID-19 Hospitalizations during the Omicron BA.1 Wave in the United States |
| title_sort | population based model of the fraction of incidental covid 19 hospitalizations during the omicron ba 1 wave in the united states |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 population-based prevalence disease under-reporting integrative epidemiology cohort of U.S counties |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8112/3/5/54 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jeffreyeharris populationbasedmodelofthefractionofincidentalcovid19hospitalizationsduringtheomicronba1waveintheunitedstates |