The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models?
Following the exisiting literature, we present the most up-to-date estimates of oil shocks and the response of the U.S. economy. Regardless of model specifications, oil supply shocks have a negative effect on the U.S. real GDP, albeit the magnitude of responses is different across models. Aggregate...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Taylor & Francis Group
2022-12-01
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| Series: | Journal of Applied Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15140326.2022.2053940 |
| _version_ | 1818543413228732416 |
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| author | Gil Kim David Vera |
| author_facet | Gil Kim David Vera |
| author_sort | Gil Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Following the exisiting literature, we present the most up-to-date estimates of oil shocks and the response of the U.S. economy. Regardless of model specifications, oil supply shocks have a negative effect on the U.S. real GDP, albeit the magnitude of responses is different across models. Aggregate demand shocks and oil-market specific shocks appear to have a positive effect on CPI, while there is little evidence of inflationary impact from the oil supply shocks. Overall, our results suggest that to evaluate the impact of an unexpected change on the price of oil on economic activity, identifying the source of the price of oil fluctuation might be one of the critical steps since the response of the GDP and CPI could vary depending on the source of the shocks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T22:35:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dc07a35ca01d482c9dd0796e813049fa |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1514-0326 1667-6726 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T22:35:03Z |
| publishDate | 2022-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Applied Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-dc07a35ca01d482c9dd0796e813049fa2022-12-22T00:48:00ZengTaylor & Francis GroupJournal of Applied Economics1514-03261667-67262022-12-0125185687710.1080/15140326.2022.2053940The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models?Gil Kim0David Vera1Department of Economics, Craig School of Business, California State University, Fresno, CA, USADepartment of Economics, Craig School of Business, California State University, Fresno, CA, USAFollowing the exisiting literature, we present the most up-to-date estimates of oil shocks and the response of the U.S. economy. Regardless of model specifications, oil supply shocks have a negative effect on the U.S. real GDP, albeit the magnitude of responses is different across models. Aggregate demand shocks and oil-market specific shocks appear to have a positive effect on CPI, while there is little evidence of inflationary impact from the oil supply shocks. Overall, our results suggest that to evaluate the impact of an unexpected change on the price of oil on economic activity, identifying the source of the price of oil fluctuation might be one of the critical steps since the response of the GDP and CPI could vary depending on the source of the shocks.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15140326.2022.2053940Oil shocksoil pricesbusiness fluctuations |
| spellingShingle | Gil Kim David Vera The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models? Journal of Applied Economics Oil shocks oil prices business fluctuations |
| title | The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models? |
| title_full | The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models? |
| title_fullStr | The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models? |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models? |
| title_short | The effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy: what can we learn from alternative models? |
| title_sort | effect of oil price fluctuation on the economy what can we learn from alternative models |
| topic | Oil shocks oil prices business fluctuations |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15140326.2022.2053940 |
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