Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network
Abstract Background Examining past trends and predicting the future helps policymakers to design effective interventions to deal with myocardial infarction (MI) with a clear understanding of the current and future situation. The aim of this study was to estimate the death rate due to MI in Iran by a...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-10-01
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| Series: | BMC Cardiovascular Disorders |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12872-022-02871-8 |
| _version_ | 1828194774639706112 |
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| author | Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi Kamal Gholipour Rahim Khodayari-Zarnaq Mehrdad Azmin Gisoo Alizadeh |
| author_facet | Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi Kamal Gholipour Rahim Khodayari-Zarnaq Mehrdad Azmin Gisoo Alizadeh |
| author_sort | Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Examining past trends and predicting the future helps policymakers to design effective interventions to deal with myocardial infarction (MI) with a clear understanding of the current and future situation. The aim of this study was to estimate the death rate due to MI in Iran by artificial neural network (ANN). Methods In this ecological study, the prevalence of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia over 200, hypertension, overweight and obesity were estimated for the years 2017–2025. ANN and Linear regression model were used. Also, Specialists were also asked to predict the death rate due to MI by considering the conditions of 3 conditions (optimistic, pessimistic, and probable), and the predicted process was compared with the modeling process. Results Death rate due to MI in Iran is expected to decrease on average, while there will be a significant decrease in the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia 1.031 (− 24.81, 26.88). Also, the trend of diabetes 10.48 (111.45, − 132.42), blood pressure − 110.48 (− 174.04, − 46.91) and obesity and overweight − 35.84 (− 18.66, − 5.02) are slowly increasing. MI death rate in Iran is higher in men but is decreasing on average. Experts' forecasts are different and have predicted a completely upward trend. Conclusion The trend predicted by the modeling shows that the death rate due to MI will decrease in the future with a low slope. Improving the infrastructure for providing preventive services to reduce the risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the community is one of the priority measures in the current situation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:31:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dc1b3e8efde744f3bc755f98e8c0a18a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2261 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T09:31:47Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Cardiovascular Disorders |
| spelling | doaj.art-dc1b3e8efde744f3bc755f98e8c0a18a2022-12-22T03:38:21ZengBMCBMC Cardiovascular Disorders1471-22612022-10-012211810.1186/s12872-022-02871-8Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural networkMohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi0Kamal Gholipour1Rahim Khodayari-Zarnaq2Mehrdad Azmin3Gisoo Alizadeh4Cabrini Research, Cabrini HealthTabriz Health Service Management Research Center, School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesDepartment of Health Policy and Management, School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesNon-Communicable Diseases Research Center Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical SciencesTabriz Health Service Management Research Center, School of Management and Medical Informatics, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesAbstract Background Examining past trends and predicting the future helps policymakers to design effective interventions to deal with myocardial infarction (MI) with a clear understanding of the current and future situation. The aim of this study was to estimate the death rate due to MI in Iran by artificial neural network (ANN). Methods In this ecological study, the prevalence of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia over 200, hypertension, overweight and obesity were estimated for the years 2017–2025. ANN and Linear regression model were used. Also, Specialists were also asked to predict the death rate due to MI by considering the conditions of 3 conditions (optimistic, pessimistic, and probable), and the predicted process was compared with the modeling process. Results Death rate due to MI in Iran is expected to decrease on average, while there will be a significant decrease in the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia 1.031 (− 24.81, 26.88). Also, the trend of diabetes 10.48 (111.45, − 132.42), blood pressure − 110.48 (− 174.04, − 46.91) and obesity and overweight − 35.84 (− 18.66, − 5.02) are slowly increasing. MI death rate in Iran is higher in men but is decreasing on average. Experts' forecasts are different and have predicted a completely upward trend. Conclusion The trend predicted by the modeling shows that the death rate due to MI will decrease in the future with a low slope. Improving the infrastructure for providing preventive services to reduce the risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the community is one of the priority measures in the current situation.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12872-022-02871-8EstimationDeath rateMyocardial infarctionArtificial neural networkIran |
| spellingShingle | Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi Kamal Gholipour Rahim Khodayari-Zarnaq Mehrdad Azmin Gisoo Alizadeh Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network BMC Cardiovascular Disorders Estimation Death rate Myocardial infarction Artificial neural network Iran |
| title | Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network |
| title_full | Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network |
| title_short | Estimation of myocardial infarction death in Iran: artificial neural network |
| title_sort | estimation of myocardial infarction death in iran artificial neural network |
| topic | Estimation Death rate Myocardial infarction Artificial neural network Iran |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12872-022-02871-8 |
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