Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked to surface temperature anomalies, but how these connect to changes in the likelihood of specific weather extremes and their associated weather patterns remains uncertain. While, on average, it is true that cold surface temperatures follow SSW eve...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 |
| _version_ | 1797747421058433024 |
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| author | Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright |
| author_facet | Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright |
| author_sort | Richard J Hall |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked to surface temperature anomalies, but how these connect to changes in the likelihood of specific weather extremes and their associated weather patterns remains uncertain. While, on average, it is true that cold surface temperatures follow SSW events, particularly in Northern Europe, there is considerable event-to-event variability. Over the British Isles and Central Europe, only around 45% of SSWs are followed by a colder than average period and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, cautioning against an over-generalised approach to surface anomalies associated with SSWs. Focussing on more hazardous weather, which in winter is associated with cold extremes, we use reanalysis data to consider how SSWs impact temperature-related hazards; namely the frequency of snowy days, frost days and spells of extreme cold weather in 12 major European cities. In general, SSWs are associated with an increased risk of snow across most of western Europe, and that this is particularly significant in milder, more maritime locations such as London where in reanalysis, snowfall days are 40% more likely after an SSW. However, there is considerable variation in surface temperature anomalies between SSW events; the third of SSWs with the warmest surface anomalies are statistically more likely to have a decreased risk of snow, frost and persistent cold spells compared with non-SSW time periods. These warmer events are associated with a different temperature anomaly pattern, which is consistent in both reanalysis data and large ensemble CMIP6 models. We further show that these warm surface temperature anomaly SSWs are becoming more frequent, a trend which is consistent with background global warming. The varied surface anomalies associated with SSWs highlights the need to study their impacts in a probabilistic sense, and motivates further work to enable better prediction of the impacts of a given event. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:18Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-dc3464e1da574259acca62d9fbeeb28c2023-08-09T15:15:41ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118606400210.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming eventsRichard J Hall0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4840-383XDann M Mitchell1William J M Seviour2Corwin J Wright3School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol , Bristol, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol , Bristol, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute and Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter , Exeter, United KingdomCentre for Space, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Bath , Bath, United KingdomSudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) have been linked to surface temperature anomalies, but how these connect to changes in the likelihood of specific weather extremes and their associated weather patterns remains uncertain. While, on average, it is true that cold surface temperatures follow SSW events, particularly in Northern Europe, there is considerable event-to-event variability. Over the British Isles and Central Europe, only around 45% of SSWs are followed by a colder than average period and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, cautioning against an over-generalised approach to surface anomalies associated with SSWs. Focussing on more hazardous weather, which in winter is associated with cold extremes, we use reanalysis data to consider how SSWs impact temperature-related hazards; namely the frequency of snowy days, frost days and spells of extreme cold weather in 12 major European cities. In general, SSWs are associated with an increased risk of snow across most of western Europe, and that this is particularly significant in milder, more maritime locations such as London where in reanalysis, snowfall days are 40% more likely after an SSW. However, there is considerable variation in surface temperature anomalies between SSW events; the third of SSWs with the warmest surface anomalies are statistically more likely to have a decreased risk of snow, frost and persistent cold spells compared with non-SSW time periods. These warmer events are associated with a different temperature anomaly pattern, which is consistent in both reanalysis data and large ensemble CMIP6 models. We further show that these warm surface temperature anomaly SSWs are becoming more frequent, a trend which is consistent with background global warming. The varied surface anomalies associated with SSWs highlights the need to study their impacts in a probabilistic sense, and motivates further work to enable better prediction of the impacts of a given event.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3hazardssudden stratospheric warmingssurface weather impactsweather patterns |
| spellingShingle | Richard J Hall Dann M Mitchell William J M Seviour Corwin J Wright Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events Environmental Research Letters hazards sudden stratospheric warmings surface weather impacts weather patterns |
| title | Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
| title_full | Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
| title_fullStr | Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
| title_full_unstemmed | Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
| title_short | Surface hazards in North-west Europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
| title_sort | surface hazards in north west europe following sudden stratospheric warming events |
| topic | hazards sudden stratospheric warmings surface weather impacts weather patterns |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd0c3 |
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