Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa
Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. Th...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502 |
| _version_ | 1811219921542053888 |
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| author | Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile Qiuhong Tang Seyed‐Mohammad Hosseini‐Moghari Xingcai Liu T. G. Gebremicael Guoyong Leng Asfaw Kebede Ximeng Xu Xiaobo Yun |
| author_facet | Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile Qiuhong Tang Seyed‐Mohammad Hosseini‐Moghari Xingcai Liu T. G. Gebremicael Guoyong Leng Asfaw Kebede Ximeng Xu Xiaobo Yun |
| author_sort | Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:35:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dc47db5906b6413ca405545d900c4f4b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T07:35:06Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-dc47db5906b6413ca405545d900c4f4b2022-12-22T03:41:59ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772020-07-0187n/an/a10.1029/2020EF001502Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East AfricaGebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile0Qiuhong Tang1Seyed‐Mohammad Hosseini‐Moghari2Xingcai Liu3T. G. Gebremicael4Guoyong Leng5Asfaw Kebede6Ximeng Xu7Xiaobo Yun8Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaTigray Agricultural Research Institute Mekelle EthiopiaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaHaramaya University, Institute of Technology Dire Dawa EthiopiaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaAbstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502SPISPEIdroughtEast Africauncertaintyclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile Qiuhong Tang Seyed‐Mohammad Hosseini‐Moghari Xingcai Liu T. G. Gebremicael Guoyong Leng Asfaw Kebede Ximeng Xu Xiaobo Yun Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa Earth's Future SPI SPEI drought East Africa uncertainty climate change |
| title | Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa |
| title_full | Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa |
| title_fullStr | Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa |
| title_short | Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa |
| title_sort | projected impacts of climate change on drought patterns over east africa |
| topic | SPI SPEI drought East Africa uncertainty climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502 |
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