Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator
The ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional pat...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Diversity |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/4/169 |
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| author | Danai-Eleni Michailidou Maria Lazarina Stefanos P. Sgardelis |
| author_facet | Danai-Eleni Michailidou Maria Lazarina Stefanos P. Sgardelis |
| author_sort | Danai-Eleni Michailidou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional patterns. Here, we explored the effect of predator-prey interaction on the predator distribution, using as target species the widespread and generalist grass snake (<i>Natrix natrix</i>). We used ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to build a model only with abiotic variables (abiotic model) and a biotic one including prey species richness. Then we projected the future grass snake distribution using a modest emission scenario assuming an unhindered and no dispersal scenario. The two models performed equally well, with temperature and prey species richness emerging as the top drivers of species distribution in the abiotic and biotic models, respectively. In the future, a severe range contraction is anticipated in the case of no dispersal, a likely possibility as reptiles are poor dispersers. If the species can disperse freely, an improbable scenario due to habitat loss and fragmentation, it will lose part of its contemporary distribution, but it will expand northwards. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T12:17:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dc5e5e87a3dd4fe382566fab0b9df7ef |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1424-2818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T12:17:48Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Diversity |
| spelling | doaj.art-dc5e5e87a3dd4fe382566fab0b9df7ef2023-11-21T15:43:53ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182021-04-0113416910.3390/d13040169Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist PredatorDanai-Eleni Michailidou0Maria Lazarina1Stefanos P. Sgardelis2Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceDepartment of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceDepartment of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University, 54124 Thessaloniki, GreeceThe ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional patterns. Here, we explored the effect of predator-prey interaction on the predator distribution, using as target species the widespread and generalist grass snake (<i>Natrix natrix</i>). We used ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to build a model only with abiotic variables (abiotic model) and a biotic one including prey species richness. Then we projected the future grass snake distribution using a modest emission scenario assuming an unhindered and no dispersal scenario. The two models performed equally well, with temperature and prey species richness emerging as the top drivers of species distribution in the abiotic and biotic models, respectively. In the future, a severe range contraction is anticipated in the case of no dispersal, a likely possibility as reptiles are poor dispersers. If the species can disperse freely, an improbable scenario due to habitat loss and fragmentation, it will lose part of its contemporary distribution, but it will expand northwards.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/4/169biotic interactionsclimate changeprey species richnessspecies distribution models |
| spellingShingle | Danai-Eleni Michailidou Maria Lazarina Stefanos P. Sgardelis Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator Diversity biotic interactions climate change prey species richness species distribution models |
| title | Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator |
| title_full | Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator |
| title_fullStr | Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator |
| title_short | Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator |
| title_sort | temperature and prey species richness drive the broad scale distribution of a generalist predator |
| topic | biotic interactions climate change prey species richness species distribution models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/4/169 |
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