Season-ahead forecasting of water storage and irrigation requirements – an application to the southwest monsoon in India
<p>Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-10-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/22/5125/2018/hess-22-5125-2018.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the
water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for
forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this
methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on
forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season
in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate
predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an
exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill
score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation
mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years 2001 to 2013 using
the identified predictors and a non-parametric <i>k</i>-nearest neighbors approach.
The accuracy of the adaptive forecasts (2001–2013) was judged based on
directional concordance and contingency metrics such as hit/miss rate and
false alarms. Based on these criteria, our forecasts were correct 9 out
of 13 times, with two misses and two false alarms. The results of
these drought forecasts were compared with precipitation forecasts from the
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). We assert that it is necessary to
couple informative water stress indices with an effective forecasting
methodology to maximize the utility of such indices, thereby optimizing
water management decisions.</p> |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |