Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change
Coastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd |
| _version_ | 1797627697811161088 |
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| author | Sarah Hülsen Robert I McDonald Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer David N Bresch Richard Sharp Thomas Worthington Chahan M Kropf |
| author_facet | Sarah Hülsen Robert I McDonald Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer David N Bresch Richard Sharp Thomas Worthington Chahan M Kropf |
| author_sort | Sarah Hülsen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Coastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service provision, in the past and under climate change. We employ the probabilistic, event-based CLImate ADAptation platform (CLIMADA) to quantify the protection from tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by coastal ecosystems, modeling the number of beneficiaries in the past and under future climate change. We also investigate the potential of nature-based solutions (NbS), such as mangrove restoration. We find that currently, one in five (21%) of all people impacted annually by TCs in the global low-elevation coastal zone is within the protection distance of coastal ecosystems. Over the last 30 years, the share of protected people has decreased by approximately 2%, due to ecosystem loss. With climate change, the average annual number of people impacted will increase by 40%. Simultaneously, the proportion of people protected by coastal ecosystems with climate change decreases due to changes in TC distribution (−1%). The importance of current coastal protection, and the potential for increasing protection by NbS, varies widely between countries. While the number of people protected globally only increases slightly with mangrove restoration, the share of people protected in individual countries can increase by up to 39%. Our findings provide a basis for NbS planning and adaptation policy, by highlighting areas which will be crucial for coastal protection services in a world altered by climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:28:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-dcc96a9e95b44e43a9d4a3dee602f74c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T10:28:06Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-dcc96a9e95b44e43a9d4a3dee602f74c2023-11-15T08:14:04ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-01181212402310.1088/1748-9326/ad00cdGlobal protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate changeSarah Hülsen0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8899-0074Robert I McDonald1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7273-6549Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1539-5231David N Bresch3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8431-4263Richard Sharp4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9797-472XThomas Worthington5https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8138-9075Chahan M Kropf6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3761-2292Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich , Zürich, SwitzerlandThe Nature Conservancy in Europe , Berlin, Germany; CUNY Institute for Demographic Research , New York, NY, United States of America; Research Affiliate, Humboldt University , Berlin, GermanyGlobal Science, WWF , San Francisco, CA, United States of America; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota , St. Paul, MN, United States of AmericaInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich , Zürich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology , Zürich-Airport, SwitzerlandSPRING Innovate , Oakland, CA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Zoology, University of Cambridge , Cambridge, United KingdomInstitute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich , Zürich, Switzerland; Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology , Zürich-Airport, SwitzerlandCoastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service provision, in the past and under climate change. We employ the probabilistic, event-based CLImate ADAptation platform (CLIMADA) to quantify the protection from tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by coastal ecosystems, modeling the number of beneficiaries in the past and under future climate change. We also investigate the potential of nature-based solutions (NbS), such as mangrove restoration. We find that currently, one in five (21%) of all people impacted annually by TCs in the global low-elevation coastal zone is within the protection distance of coastal ecosystems. Over the last 30 years, the share of protected people has decreased by approximately 2%, due to ecosystem loss. With climate change, the average annual number of people impacted will increase by 40%. Simultaneously, the proportion of people protected by coastal ecosystems with climate change decreases due to changes in TC distribution (−1%). The importance of current coastal protection, and the potential for increasing protection by NbS, varies widely between countries. While the number of people protected globally only increases slightly with mangrove restoration, the share of people protected in individual countries can increase by up to 39%. Our findings provide a basis for NbS planning and adaptation policy, by highlighting areas which will be crucial for coastal protection services in a world altered by climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cdnature-based solutionsclimate change adaptationecosystem servicesnatural hazardstropical cyclones |
| spellingShingle | Sarah Hülsen Robert I McDonald Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer David N Bresch Richard Sharp Thomas Worthington Chahan M Kropf Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change Environmental Research Letters nature-based solutions climate change adaptation ecosystem services natural hazards tropical cyclones |
| title | Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change |
| title_full | Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change |
| title_short | Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems—past, present, and under climate change |
| title_sort | global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems past present and under climate change |
| topic | nature-based solutions climate change adaptation ecosystem services natural hazards tropical cyclones |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad00cd |
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